āĻā§āĻŽāĻŋāĻāĻž -- āϝ⧠āĻāĻžāĻā§āϰ āĻļāĻŋāĻāĻĄāĻŧā§ āĻĒāĻāύ āϧāϰā§āĻāĻŋāϞ āĻāĻŽāϰāĻž āĻĻā§āĻāĻŋāύāĻŋ
āĻāĻāĻāĻž āĻāĻžāĻā§āϰ āĻāĻĨāĻž āĻāĻžāĻŦā§āύāĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϰ⧠āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻĻā§āĻāϤ⧠āϏāĻŦā§āĻ, āϏāϤā§āĻ, āϏā§āĻŦāĻžāϏā§āĻĨā§āϝāĻŦāĻžāύāĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋ āĻŦāĻāϰ āύāϤā§āύ āĻĄāĻžāϞāĻĒāĻžāϞāĻž, āύāϤā§āύ āĻĒāĻžāϤāĻž, āύāϤā§āύ āĻĢā§āϞāĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻŦā§āĻļā§āϰāĻž āĻĒā§āϰāĻļāĻāϏāĻž āĻāϰ⧠-- "āĻā§ āĻāĻŽā§āĻāĻžāϰ āĻāĻžāĻ!" āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻžāĻā§āϰ āύāĻŋāĻā§, āĻŽāĻžāĻāĻŋāϰ āύāĻŋāĻā§ āĻļāĻŋāĻāĻĄāĻŧā§ āĻĒāĻāύ āϧāϰā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻā§āĻ āĻĻā§āĻā§ āύāĻž, āĻā§āĻ āĻŦāϞ⧠āύāĻž, āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϰā§āϰ āϏā§āύā§āĻĻāϰā§āϝ āϏāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻā§āĻā§ āĻāĻžāϏā§āĨ¤ āϤāĻžāϰāĻĒāϰ āĻāĻāĻĻāĻŋāύ āĻāĻāĻāĻž āĻāĻĄāĻŧ āĻāϞ⧠-- āĻā§āĻŦ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āĻāĻĄāĻŧ āύāĻž, āĻŽāĻžāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ āĻāĻāĻāĻž āĻāĻĄāĻŧāĨ¤ āĻāĻžāĻ āĻŽāĻĄāĻŧāĻŽāĻĄāĻŧ āĻāϰ⧠āĻā§āĻā§ āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧāϞāĨ¤ āϏāĻŦāĻžāĻ āĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻ -- āĻāĻ āĻāĻžāĻ āĻāϤ āĻĻā§āϰā§āϤ āĻā§āύ āĻāĻžāĻāϞ?
āĻāϤā§āϤāϰ āϏāĻŦāĻžāĻ āĻāĻžāύāϤāĨ¤ āĻā§āĻ āϏā§āĻŦā§āĻāĻžāϰ āĻāϰā§āύāĻŋāĨ¤ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ āĻāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāϰ āĻļāĻŋāĻāĻĄāĻŧā§ āĻ āύā§āĻ āĻŦāĻāϰ āϧāϰ⧠āĻĒāĻāύ āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ āĻāĻĄāĻŧ āĻļā§āϧ⧠āĻāĻžāĻāĻž āĻāĻžāĻāĻāĻžāĻā§ āĻĻā§āĻļā§āϝāĻŽāĻžāύ āĻāϰā§āĻā§āĨ¤
āĻāĻ āϞā§āĻāĻžāĻāĻŋāϰ āĻŽā§āϞ āĻŦāĻā§āϤāĻŦā§āϝ āĻāĻāĻāĻžāĻ -- āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ļ-⧍ā§Ŧ-āĻāϰ āϏāĻāĻāĻā§ āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧā§āĻā§ āĻā§āύ⧠āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻāĻāύāĻžāϝāĻŧ āύāϝāĻŧ, āĻā§āύ⧠āĻŦāĻžāĻāϰā§āϰ āĻļāϤā§āϰā§āϰ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖā§ āύāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āϏāĻāĻāĻā§āϰ āĻŦā§āĻ ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ boom phase-āĻāϰ āĻā§āϤāϰā§āĻ āĻŦāĻĒāύ āĻāϰāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻāĻŋ āĻŦā§āĻā§āϰ āύāĻžāĻŽ āĻāĻžāύāĻž āĻāĻŋāϞ -- NPL, capacity payment, taka overvaluation, RMG concentration, fiscal weaknessāĨ¤ āĻā§āĻ āϏā§āĻŦā§āĻāĻžāϰ āĻāϰā§āύāĻŋāĨ¤ āϏāĻŦāĻžāĻ āĻĻā§āĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻā§āĻ āĻŦāϞā§āύāĻŋāĨ¤
World Bank-āĻāϰ āĻāĻĒā§āϰāĻŋāϞ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ŧ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻŦā§āĻĻāύ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§, āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ FY26-āĻ GDP āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋ āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āĻāĻļāύ āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰ ā§Š.⧝% -- āϝā§āĻāĻžāύ⧠āĻāϤ āĻĻāĻļāĻā§āϰ āĻāĻĄāĻŧ āĻāĻŋāϞ ā§Ŧ.ā§Ģ-ā§%āĨ¤ NPL ā§Šā§Ģ.ā§ā§Š%, āĻŦā§āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻ ā§Ģ āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύ, private credit growth ⧍ā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ classic boom-bust cycle-āĻāϰ bust phase -- āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāϰ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖāĻā§āϞ⧠āĻāĻ āĻŦāĻāϰ⧠āϤā§āϰāĻŋ āĻšāϝāĻŧāύāĻŋ, ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰ āϧāϰ⧠āĻāĻŽā§āĻā§āĨ¤
āĻāĻ āϞā§āĻāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻāĻŽāϰāĻž āϧāĻžāĻĒā§ āϧāĻžāĻĒā§ āĻĻā§āĻāĻŦ -- (ā§§) Boom-Bust Cycle āϤāϤā§āϤā§āĻŦ, (⧍) āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ boom-āĻāϰ āĻāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻā§āϝ, (ā§Š) āϏā§āĻ āĻāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻā§āϝā§āϰ āĻā§āϤāϰ⧠āϞā§āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āĻĨāĻžāĻāĻž ā§§ā§ĢāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻžāĻ āĻžāĻŽā§āĻāϤ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž, (ā§Ē) COVID āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻļā§āϰ⧠āĻāϰ⧠⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ē-āĻāϰ āĻā§āϞāĻžāĻ āĻ āĻā§āϝā§āϤā§āĻĨāĻžāύ āĻĒāϰā§āϝāύā§āϤ āϤāĻŋāύāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻĄāĻŧ āĻā§āĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āĻā§āϤāϰā§āϰ āĻĒāĻāύāĻā§ āĻĻā§āĻļā§āϝāĻŽāĻžāύ āĻāϰāϞ, (ā§Ģ) āĻāĻāύ āĻā§āĻĨāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻāĻāĻŋ, (ā§Ŧ) recovery āĻāϤāĻāĻž āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ, āĻāĻŦāĻ (ā§) āϏāĻžāĻŽāύ⧠āĻā§ āĻāϏāĻā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻā§āύ⧠āϏāĻāĻā§āώāĻŋāĻĒā§āϤ āϏāĻžāϰāϏāĻāĻā§āώā§āĻĒ āύāϝāĻŧ -- āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āϏāĻŽā§āĻĒā§āϰā§āĻŖ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻŽāϝāĻŧāύāĻž-āϤāĻĻāύā§āϤāĨ¤
Boom-Bust Cycle -- āĻļā§āϧ⧠āĻāĻžāϰāĻāĻŋ āϧāĻžāĻĒ āύāϝāĻŧ, āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻā§āϰ āĻĒā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻžāϰā§āύ
āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻŋāĻĻāϰāĻž āĻļāϤāĻžāĻŦā§āĻĻā§ āϧāϰ⧠āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻĒā§āϰāĻļā§āύ āύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āĻāĻžāĻ āĻāϰāĻā§āύ -- āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋ āĻā§āύ āĻāĻāĻāĻžāύāĻž āĻāĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧ āύāĻž? āĻā§āύ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋ āĻāϝāĻŧā§āĻ āĻĻāĻļāĻ āĻĒāϰ āĻĒāϰ āϏāĻāĻāĻ āĻāϏā§? āĻāϤā§āϤāϰ āϏāϰāϞ āύāϝāĻŧ, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āϧāĻžāϰāĻŖāĻž āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻā§āϰāĻšāĻŖāϝā§āĻā§āϝ: Boom-Bust Cycle āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāϰ āĻā§āϤāϰā§āϰ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻ āύā§āϤāϰā§āύāĻŋāĻšāĻŋāϤ āĻĒā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻžāϰā§āύ -- āĻŦāĻžāĻāϰā§āϰ shock āύāϝāĻŧ, āĻā§āϤāϰā§āϰ āĻāϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āϝāĻž āĻĨā§āĻā§āĻ āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāύā§āĻŽ āύā§āϝāĻŧāĨ¤
āĻāĻžāϰāĻāĻŋ āϧāĻžāĻĒ -- āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻāĻŋāϰ āĻāĻā§āϰ⧠āĻā§ āĻāĻā§
āϧāĻžāĻĒ | āύāĻžāĻŽ | āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋāώā§āĻā§āϝ | āϏāĻžāĻŽāĻžāĻāĻŋāĻ āĻŽāύāϏā§āϤāϤā§āϤā§āĻŦ |
ā§§ | Expansion | GDP āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻā§, āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻā§, āĻāĻŖ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻā§, āĻāϰā§āĻŽāϏāĻāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāύ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻā§ | āĻāĻļāĻžāĻŦāĻžāĻĻ, āĻāϤā§āĻŽāĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āĻŦāĻžāϏ, āĻāĻŦāĻŋāώā§āϝāϤā§āϰ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋ āĻāϏā§āĻĨāĻž |
⧍ | Peak | Asset bubble, overvaluation, excessive risk-taking, credit excess | Euphoria -- 'āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰ āϏāĻŦ āĻāϞāĻžāĻĻāĻž', 'āύāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻŽ āĻā§āĻā§āĻā§' |
ā§Š | Contraction | Default āĻļā§āϰā§, asset price crash, āĻāĻžāĻāĻāĻžāĻ, credit freeze | āĻāϤāĻā§āĻ, āĻ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āĻŦāĻžāϏ, blame game |
ā§Ē | Trough | GDP āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύ, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠leading indicators āĻā§āϰāϤ⧠āĻļā§āϰ⧠āĻāϰ⧠| āύā§āϰāĻžāĻļā§āϝ, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻĒā§āύāϰā§āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻŽāĻžāĻŖā§āϰ āĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋ āĻāĻžāĻā§āϰāϤ |
Hyman Minsky -- āϝāĻŋāύāĻŋ āĻāĻāĻā§āϰ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻāϞā§āĻĒ ā§Ģā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰ āĻāĻā§ āϞāĻŋāĻā§āĻāĻŋāϞā§āύ
Hyman Minsky āĻāĻŋāϞā§āύ āĻāĻāĻāύ āĻāĻŽ-āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻāĻŋāϤ āĻāĻŽā§āϰāĻŋāĻāĻžāύ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻŋāĻĻāĨ¤ ⧧⧝ā§ā§Ļ-āĻāϰ āĻĻāĻļāĻā§ āϤāĻŋāύāĻŋ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āϤāϤā§āϤā§āĻŦ āĻĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞā§āύ -- Financial Instability HypothesisāĨ¤ āϤāĻžāϰ āĻŽā§āϞ āĻāĻĨāĻž āĻāĻŋāϞ: "āϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤāĻŋāĻļā§āϞāϤāĻžāĻ āĻ āϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤāĻŋāĻļā§āϞāϤāĻž āĻĄā§āĻā§ āĻāύā§" (Stability breeds instability)āĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻā§āĻāĻžāĻŦā§?
āϝāĻāύ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋ āĻ āύā§āĻāĻĻāĻŋāύ āĻāĻžāϞ⧠āĻāϞā§, āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāϏāĻžāϝāĻŧā§ āĻ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ āĻā§āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻā§āϞ⧠āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āϤāĻžāϰāĻž āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻāĻŖ āύā§āϝāĻŧ, āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻāĻŖ āĻĻā§āϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āϏāĻĢāϞāϤāĻž āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻāϤā§āĻŽāĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āĻŦāĻžāϏ, āĻāϤā§āĻŽāĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āĻŦāĻžāϏ āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻ āĻšāĻāĻāĻžāϰ, āĻ āĻšāĻāĻāĻžāϰ āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻ āϝā§āĻā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻā§āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻā§āϰāĻšāĻŖāĨ¤ āĻāĻ process-āĻāϰ āĻļā§āώ⧠āĻāϏ⧠"Minsky moment" -- āϝāĻāύ āϏāĻŦāĻžāĻ āĻšāĻ āĻžā§ āĻŦā§āĻāϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϰ⧠āϝ⧠āĻāĻŖ-āĻāĻŋāϤā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āϏāĻŽā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋāϰ āĻāĻŋāϤā§āϤāĻŋ āĻĢāĻžāĻāĻĒāĻžāĨ¤
Minsky-āϰ āϤāĻŋāύ āϧāϰāύā§āϰ āĻāĻŖāĻā§āϰāĻšā§āϤāĻž | āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋāώā§āĻā§āϝ | āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§ āĻāĻĻāĻžāĻšāϰāĻŖ |
Hedge Borrower | āĻŽā§āϞāϧāύ āĻ āϏā§āĻĻ āĻĻā§āĻā§āĻ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻļā§āϧ āĻāϰāϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϰā§āύ āĻāϝāĻŧ āĻĨā§āĻā§ | āϏā§āϏā§āĻĨ āĻā§āĻ-āĻŽāĻžāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāϏāĻž |
Speculative Borrower | āĻļā§āϧ⧠āϏā§āĻĻ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻļā§āϧ āĻāϰāϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϰā§āύ, āĻŽā§āϞāϧāύ rollover āĻāϰāϤ⧠āĻšāϝāĻŧ | āĻŦāĻšā§ RMG āĻāĻžāϰāĻāĻžāύāĻž, real estate developer |
Ponzi Borrower | āϏā§āĻĻāĻ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻļā§āϧ āĻāϰāϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϰā§āύ āύāĻž -- āύāϤā§āύ āĻāĻŖ āύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āĻĒā§āϰāύ⧠āĻļā§āϧ āĻāϰāϤ⧠āĻšāϝāĻŧ | S Alam, Beximco-āϰ āĻŽāϤ⧠āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āĻā§āώā§āĻ ā§ |
Minsky-āϰ āĻŽā§āϞ āĻ āύā§āϤāϰā§āĻĻā§āώā§āĻāĻŋ: āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋ āϝāϤ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ Hedge āĻĨā§āĻā§ Speculative-āĻ, āĻāĻŦāĻ Speculative āĻĨā§āĻā§ Ponzi-āϤ⧠āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧ, āϤāϤāĻ āϏāĻāĻāĻā§āϰ āĻāĻžāĻā§ āĻĒā§āĻāĻāĻžāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻ āϏāĻŋāϏā§āĻā§āĻŽ ⧍ā§Ļā§§ā§Ļ āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻā§āϰāĻŽāĻļ Ponzi-āϤ⧠āϰā§āĻĒāĻžāύā§āϤāϰāĻŋāϤ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞ -- āĻā§āĻ āϏā§āĻŦā§āĻāĻžāϰ āĻāϰā§āύāĻŋ, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āϏāĻŦāĻžāĻ āĻāĻžāύāϤāĨ¤
Schumpeter, Keynes, Minsky -- āϤāĻŋāύ āĻĻā§āώā§āĻāĻŋāĻāĻā§āĻāĻŋ
āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤāĻžāĻŦāĻŋāĻĻ | āĻŽā§āϞ āϧāĻžāϰāĻŖāĻž | āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻā§āώā§āϤā§āϰ⧠āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϏāĻā§āĻāĻŋāĻāϤāĻž |
Joseph Schumpeter | Creative Destruction -- āĻĒā§āϰāύ⧠āĻā§āĻā§ āύāϤā§āύ āϤā§āϰāĻŋ | Bust phase āϝāĻĻāĻŋ āϏāĻ āĻŋāĻāĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāĻšāĻžāϰ āĻšāϝāĻŧ -- innovation-āĻāϰ āϏā§āϝā§āĻ |
John Maynard Keynes | āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ āĻšāϏā§āϤāĻā§āώā§āĻĒ āĻāĻā§āϰā§āϰ āϤā§āĻŦā§āϰāϤāĻž āĻāĻŽāĻžāϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϰ⧠| Counter-cyclical fiscal policy -- āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠fiscal space āύā§āĻ |
Hyman Minsky | āϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤāĻŋāĻļā§āϞāϤāĻžāĻ āĻāĻŦāĻŋāώā§āϝ⧠āĻ āϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤāĻŋāĻļā§āϞāϤāĻžāϰ āĻŦā§āĻ | ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ boom-āĻ āĻ āĻŋāĻ āĻāĻāĻžāĻ āĻāĻā§āĻāĻŋāϞ |
āϤāϤā§āϤā§āĻŦ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāώā§āĻāĻžāϰāĨ¤ āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻĻā§āĻāĻž āϝāĻžāĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ boom āĻāϏāϞ⧠āĻā§āĻŽāύ āĻāĻŋāϞ -- āĻāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻā§āϝāĻāĻž āĻā§āĻĨāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻāĻŋāϞ, āĻāĻŦāĻ āϏā§āĻ āĻāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻā§āϝā§āϰ āύāĻŋāĻā§ āĻā§ āϞā§āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤
āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ Boom -- ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āĻāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻā§āϝ (⧍ā§Ļā§Ļ⧝-⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍)
Recovery āĻŦā§āĻāϤ⧠āĻšāϞ⧠āĻāĻā§ āĻŦā§āĻāϤ⧠āĻšāĻŦā§ -- āĻĒāϤāύā§āϰ āĻāĻā§ āĻāĻŽāϰāĻž āĻāϤ āĻāĻĒāϰ⧠āĻāĻŋāϞāĻžāĻŽāĨ¤ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ āϝāϤ āĻāĻĒāϰā§, āĻĒāϤāύ āϤāϤ āĻŦā§āĻĻāύāĻžāĻĻāĻžāϝāĻŧāĻāĨ¤ āĻāĻŦāĻ āϤāĻžāĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻž -- āϝ⧠āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻžāϰ āĻāϤā§āĻĨāĻžāύ, āϏā§āĻ āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻžāϰ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻžāĻ āĻāĻŽāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ ā§§ā§Ļ āĻŽāĻŋāĻāĻžāϰ āϏāĻŋāĻāĻĄāĻŧāĻŋ āĻŦā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧāϞ⧠āĻŦā§āϝāĻĨāĻž āĻĒāĻžāĻāϝāĻŧāĻž āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧ, ā§§ā§Ļā§Ļ āĻŽāĻŋāĻāĻžāϰ āĻŦā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧāϞ⧠āĻŽā§āϤā§āϝ⧠āĻšāϝāĻŧāĨ¤
āϏā§āĻāĻ | ⧍ā§Ļā§Ļ⧝ (āĻāύā§āĻŽāĻžāύāĻŋāĻ) | ⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍ (Peak) | āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāϰā§āϤāύ |
āĻŽāĻžāĻĨāĻžāĻĒāĻŋāĻā§ GDP | ~$ā§ā§Ļā§Ļ | ~$⧍,ā§Ŧā§Ļā§Ļ | āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ ā§Ē āĻā§āĻŖ |
GDP āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋ (āĻāĻĄāĻŧ) | ~ā§Ģ.ā§Ģ% | ~ā§Ŧ.ā§Ģ-ā§% (āĻāĻžāύāĻž) | āϧāĻžāϰāĻžāĻŦāĻžāĻšāĻŋāĻāϤāĻž āĻāĻŋāϞ āĻŽā§āϞ āĻāϰā§āĻŦ |
RMG āϰāĻĒā§āϤāĻžāύāĻŋ | ~$⧧⧍ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | ~$ā§Ē⧍ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | ā§Š.ā§Ģ āĻā§āĻŖ |
āϰā§āĻŽāĻŋāĻā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϏ (āĻŦāĻžāϰā§āώāĻŋāĻ) | ~$ā§§ā§§ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | ~$⧍⧧ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻĻā§āĻŦāĻŋāĻā§āĻŖ |
Foreign Reserves (peak) | ~$ā§§ā§Ļ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | ~$ā§Ēā§Ž āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ (āĻāĻāϏā§āĻ ā§¨ā§Ļ⧍⧧) | āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ ā§Ģ āĻā§āĻŖ |
āĻĻāĻžāϰāĻŋāĻĻā§āϰā§āϝ āĻšāĻžāϰ | ~ā§Šā§§% | ~ā§§ā§Ž% | āĻ āϰā§āϧā§āĻā§ |
āĻŽā§āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞ āĻā§āϰāĻžāĻšāĻ | ~ā§Ģ āĻā§āĻāĻŋ | ~ā§§ā§Ž+ āĻā§āĻāĻŋ | ā§Š.ā§Ŧ āĻā§āĻŖ |
āĻāύā§āĻāĻžāϰāύā§āĻ āĻā§āϰāĻžāĻšāĻ | ~ā§Ģ āϞāĻžāĻ | ~ā§§ā§Š āĻā§āĻāĻŋ | āĻŦāĻŋāϏā§āĻĢā§āϰāĻŖ |
āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āώ āĻĻā§āϰāώā§āĻāĻŦā§āϝ: āϤāĻĨā§āϝāϏā§āϤā§āϰ: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Bank, World Bank, BTRCāĨ¤ āϏāĻāĻā§āϝāĻž āĻāύā§āĻŽāĻžāύāĻŋāĻāĨ¤
āĻāύā§āϤāϰā§āĻāĻžāϤāĻŋāĻ āĻĒā§āϰāĻļāĻāϏāĻž -- 'Bangladesh Miracle'
āĻāĻ āϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļāĻā§ āĻŦāϞāĻž āĻšāϤ⧠'Asian Tiger'-āĻāϰ āĻĒāϰāĻŦāϰā§āϤ⧠āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāϰāĻŖāĨ¤ World Bank-āĻāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻŦā§āĻĻāύ⧠āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āύāĻžāĻŽ 'development success story' āĻšāĻŋāϏā§āĻŦā§ āĻāϞā§āϞā§āĻ āĻšāϤā§āĨ¤ Economist āĻĒāϤā§āϰāĻŋāĻāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻāĻāĻžāϰ āϏā§āĻā§āϰāĻŋ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞ 'The Bangladesh paradox' -- āĻā§āĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāώā§āĻ āĻžāύ āύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻ āĻĻā§āĻļāĻāĻŋ āĻĻā§āϰā§āϤ āĻāύā§āύāϝāĻŧāύ āĻāϰāĻā§āĨ¤
āĻŽā§āĻāĻž āĻĒā§āϰāĻāϞā§āĻĒāĻā§āϞ⧠āĻāĻ āĻāϞā§āĻĒāĻā§ āĻĻā§āĻļā§āϝāĻŽāĻžāύ āĻāϰāϞ -- āĻĒāĻĻā§āĻŽāĻž āϏā§āϤā§, āĻāϰā§āĻŖāĻĢā§āϞ⧠āĻāĻžāύā§āϞ, āϰā§āĻĒāĻĒā§āϰ āĻĒāϰāĻŽāĻžāĻŖā§ āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āϝā§ā§āĻā§āύā§āĻĻā§āϰ, āĻĸāĻžāĻāĻž āĻŽā§āĻā§āϰā§āϰā§āϞ, āĻāϞāĻŋāĻā§āĻā§āĻĄ āĻāĻā§āϏāĻĒā§āϰā§āϏāĻāϝāĻŧā§āĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻāĻŋ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāϞā§āĻĒ āĻāĻĻā§āĻŦā§āϧāύ⧠āĻāĻŋāϞ āĻā§āϏāĻŦāĨ¤ āĻŽāĻžāύā§āώ āĻŦāϞāϤ -- "āĻāĻŽāϰāĻž āϏāĻŋāĻā§āĻāĻžāĻĒā§āϰā§āϰ āĻĒāĻĨā§āĨ¤"
āĻā§āύ āĻā§āĻ āĻĒāĻāύāĻāĻž āĻĻā§āĻā§āύāĻŋ?
āĻĒā§āϰāĻļā§āύāĻāĻŋ āĻā§āϰā§āϤā§āĻŦāĻĒā§āϰā§āĻŖāĨ¤ ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰ āϧāϰ⧠āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž āĻāĻŽā§āĻā§, āĻ āĻĨāĻ āĻā§āĻ āĻāĻāϝāĻŧāĻžāĻ āϤā§āϞā§āύāĻŋāĨ¤ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖāĻā§āϞ⧠āĻāĻāĻŋāϞ:
- āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻĻāĻŽāύ -- āϏāĻŽāĻžāϞā§āĻāύāĻž āĻāϰāϞ⧠DSA (Digital Security Act)-āĻ āĻŽāĻžāĻŽāϞāĻž
- āĻāĻŖāĻŽāĻžāϧā§āϝāĻŽ self-censorship -- 'āĻāύā§āύāϝāĻŧāύ' āύā§āϝāĻžāϰā§āĻāĻŋāĻ-āĻŦāĻŋāϰā§āϧ⧠āϏāĻāĻŦāĻžāĻĻ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāĻžāĻļā§ āĻ āύāĻŋāĻā§āĻāĻž
- āĻāύā§āϤāϰā§āĻāĻžāϤāĻŋāĻ āϏāĻāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāϰ complacency -- IMF, WB GDP āĻā§āϰāĻžāĻĢ āĻĻā§āĻā§ āϏāύā§āϤā§āώā§āĻ āĻāĻŋāϞ
- āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āϏāĻžāĻĢāϞā§āϝ āϏāĻŦāĻžāĻāĻā§ āĻāĻŋāĻā§āĻāĻž āϏā§āĻŦāĻŋāϧāĻž āĻĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞ -- āĻĒā§āϰāĻļā§āύ āϤā§āϞāĻžāϰ motivation āĻāĻŽ
- Banking sector data āĻāĻŋāϞ opaque -- āĻŦāĻžāĻāϰā§āϰ āĻā§āĻ NPL-āĻāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ āĻāĻāĻžāϰ āĻāĻžāύāϤ āύāĻž
- Remittance āĻ RMG-āϰ āĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋ āĻ āύā§āϝ āϏāĻŦ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž āĻāĻžāĻĒāĻž āĻĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞ
āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻā§āϝā§āϰ āĻā§āϤāϰ⧠⧧ā§ĢāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻā§āϰ āĻāĻžāĻ āĻžāĻŽā§āĻāϤ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž āĻāĻŽāĻž āĻšāĻā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ āĻĒāϰāĻŦāϰā§āϤ⧠āϤāĻŋāύāĻāĻŋ section-āĻ āĻāĻ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻžāĻā§āϞ⧠āĻāĻā§ āĻāĻā§ āĻāύā§āĻŽā§āĻāύ āĻāϰāĻŦ -- āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻ āĻ āĻāϰā§āĻĨāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻžāϤ (āĻĒāϰā§āĻŦ ā§§), āϰāĻžāĻāϏā§āĻŦ āĻ āĻŦāĻžāϏā§āϤāĻŦ āĻāĻžāϤ (āĻĒāϰā§āĻŦ ⧍), āĻŽā§āĻĻā§āϰāĻž āĻ āϏā§āĻļāĻžāϏāύ (āĻĒāϰā§āĻŦ ā§Š)āĨ¤
āĻĒāϤāύā§āϰ āĻŦā§āĻ -- āĻĒāϰā§āĻŦ ā§§: āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻ āĻ āĻāϰā§āĻĨāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻžāϤā§āϰ āĻĒāĻāύ
āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ boom phase-āĻāϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻāĻā§āϰ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž āĻāĻŋāϞ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻžāϤā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻĒāϰ āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻļāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ āϏāĻāĻā§āϝāĻž āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻāĻŋāϞ, deposit āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻāĻŋāϞ, āϏāĻŦ āĻ āĻŋāĻ āĻĻā§āĻāĻžāĻā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ āĻā§āϤāϰ⧠āĻāĻŋāϞ systematic lootāĨ¤ āĻāϝāĻŧāĻāĻŋ āϏā§āϤāϰ⧠āĻāĻ āĻĒāĻāύ āĻāĻŽā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§§: NPL-āĻāϰ āĻĒāĻžāĻšāĻžāĻĄāĻŧ Rescheduling-āĻ āϞā§āĻāĻžāύā§
Bangladesh Bank-āĻāϰ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ NPL āĻāĻŋāϞ ā§Ž-ā§§ā§Ļ%āĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠IMF, World Bank-āĻāϰ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āϞā§āώāĻāϰāĻž āĻŦāĻšā§āĻĻāĻŋāύ āϧāϰ⧠āĻŦāϞāĻāĻŋāϞā§āύ āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ NPL ⧍ā§Ļ%+āĨ¤ āĻĒāĻžāϰā§āĻĨāĻā§āϝā§āϰ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ -- loan reschedulingāĨ¤ āϝā§āĻā§āύ⧠āĻā§āϞāĻžāĻĒāĻŋ āĻāĻŖāĻā§ āĻāĻžāĻāĻā§ āύāϤā§āύ āĻāĻŖ āĻšāĻŋāϏā§āĻŦā§ āĻĻā§āĻāĻžāύ⧠āĻšāϤā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻ āĻāĻŖ ā§Š-ā§Ē āĻŦāĻžāϰ restructure āĻšāϤā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻžāĻāĻā§ performing, āĻŦāĻžāϏā§āϤāĻŦā§ deadāĨ¤ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ē-āĻ Basel III standard āĻĒā§āϰāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āϰ āĻĒāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ NPL ā§§ā§Ļ% āĻĨā§āĻā§ āϞāĻžāĻĢāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ ā§Šā§Ģ.ā§ā§Š%-āĻ āĻā§āϞāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻž āĻšāĻ āĻžā§ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧā§āύāĻŋ, ā§§ā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰ āϧāϰ⧠āĻāĻŽā§āĻāĻŋāϞ -- āĻļā§āϧ⧠āϏāĻžāĻŽāύ⧠āĻāϏā§āĻā§āĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ⧍: āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ āϞāĻžāĻāϏā§āύā§āϏ āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻŦāĻŋāϤāϰāĻŖ
⧍ā§Ļ⧧⧍-ā§§ā§Š āϏāĻžāϞ⧠āĻāĻāϏāĻžāĻĨ⧠⧝āĻāĻŋ āύāϤā§āύ āĻŦāĻžāĻŖāĻŋāĻā§āϝāĻŋāĻ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻā§āϰ āϞāĻžāĻāϏā§āύā§āϏ āĻĻā§āĻāϝāĻŧāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞ -- āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āώāĻā§āĻāĻĻā§āϰ āĻāĻĒāϤā§āϤāĻŋ āϏāϤā§āϤā§āĻŦā§āĻāĨ¤ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋāϰāĻāĻžāĻāĻ āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻāĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āϏāĻāϝā§āĻā§āϤ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāϰāĻā§āϞā§āϰ āĻšāĻžāϤ⧠āĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤ S Alam Group āĻāĻāϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧ ā§āĻāĻŋ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻā§ āύāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύā§āϤā§āϰāĻŖ āĻāĻŋāϞ (Islami Bank, Social Islami, First Security Islami, Global Islami, Union, NRBC āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻāϰāĻ āĻāĻŋāĻā§)āĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻāĻāĻžāϧāĻŋāĻ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ -- conflict of interest-āĻāϰ textbook āϏāĻŽāϏā§āϝāĻžāĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§Š: Shell Company-āϰ āĻŽāĻžāϧā§āϝāĻŽā§ āύāĻŋāĻā§āϰ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ āĻĨā§āĻā§ āϞā§āĻ
Mechanism āĻāĻŋāϞ āϏāϰāϞ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāϝāĻŧāĻā§āĻāϰāĨ¤ āϧāĻžāĻĒ ā§§: āύāĻŋāĻā§āϰ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻā§āϰ āϞāĻžāĻāϏā§āύā§āϏ āĻĒāĻžāĻāĨ¤ āϧāĻžāĻĒ ā§¨: āĻāĻžāĻā§āĻā§ āĻā§āĻŽā§āĻĒāĻžāύāĻŋ (shell company) āϤā§āϰāĻŋ āĻāϰā§āĨ¤ āϧāĻžāĻĒ ā§Š: āϏā§āĻ āĻā§āĻŽā§āĻĒāĻžāύāĻŋāϰ āύāĻžāĻŽā§ āĻāĻŖ āĻ āύā§āĻŽā§āĻĻāύ āĻāϰ⧠(āύāĻŋāĻā§āϰ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ āĻĨā§āĻā§ āύāĻŋāĻā§āĻ)āĨ¤ āϧāĻžāĻĒ ā§Ē: āĻāĻžāĻāĻā§ project āĻĻā§āĻāĻžāĻ, āĻŦāĻžāϏā§āϤāĻŦā§ āĻāĻžāĻāĻž āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āĻļā§ āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ āĻŦāĻž āĻ āύā§āϝ āĻā§āĻĨāĻžāĻ āϏāϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āύāĻžāĻāĨ¤ āϧāĻžāĻĒ ā§Ģ: āĻāĻŖ āĻā§āϞāĻžāĻĒāĻŋ āĻšāϞ⧠rescheduling āĻāϰ⧠āύāĻžāĻāĨ¤
CPD āĻ TIB-āϰ āĻŦāĻŋāĻāĻŋāύā§āύ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻŦā§āĻĻāύ⧠āĻ āύā§āĻŽāĻžāύ, ⧍ā§Ļā§§ā§Ļ-⧍ā§Ļā§¨ā§Š āϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻžāϤ āĻĨā§āĻā§ $ā§Ģā§Ļ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύā§āϰ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨ āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ -- āϤāĻŦā§ āϏāĻ āĻŋāĻ āϏāĻāĻā§āϝāĻž āĻ āĻāĻžāύāĻž āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤāĻŋ āĻ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāĻžāĻļāĻŋāϤāĨ¤ GFI (Global Financial Integrity)-āϰ āĻāĻ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻŦā§āĻĻāύ⧠āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻŦāĻžāϰā§āώāĻŋāĻ illicit financial outflow āĻāĻŋāϞ $ā§-ā§Ž āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύāĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§Ē: Money Laundering āĻ Capital Flight
āĻļā§āϧ⧠āĻāĻŖ āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ āύāϝāĻŧ, āϰāĻĒā§āϤāĻžāύāĻŋ-āĻāĻŽāĻĻāĻžāύāĻŋāϤ⧠under/over invoicing āĻāϰ āĻŽāĻžāϧā§āϝāĻŽā§ āĻŦāĻāϰ⧠āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ āĻĄāϞāĻžāϰ āĻŦā§āϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āϝā§āϤāĨ¤ Trade misinvoicing āĻšāϞ⧠āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨ āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻžāϰā§āϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āĻā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϞāĨ¤ āϝā§āĻŽāύ: ā§§ā§Ļā§Ļ āĻĄāϞāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻĒāĻŖā§āϝ ā§ā§Ļ āĻĄāϞāĻžāϰ⧠āϰāĻĒā§āϤāĻžāύāĻŋ āĻĻā§āĻāĻžāύā§, ā§Šā§Ļ āĻĄāϞāĻžāϰ āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āĻļā§ account-āĻ āϰā§āĻā§ āĻĻā§āĻāϝāĻŧāĻžāĨ¤ āĻāĻŽāĻĻāĻžāύāĻŋāϰ āĻŦā§āϞāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻāϞā§āĻā§ -- ā§ā§Ļ āĻĄāϞāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻĒāĻŖā§āϝ ā§§ā§Ļā§Ļ āĻĄāϞāĻžāϰ⧠āĻāĻŽāĻĻāĻžāύāĻŋ āĻĻā§āĻāĻžāύā§āĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§Ģ: Stock Market āĻā§āϞā§āĻā§āĻāĻžāϰāĻŋāϰ āĻāĻā§āϰ
Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE)-āĻ ā§¨ā§Ļā§§ā§Ļ-ā§§ā§§ āϏāĻžāϞ⧠āĻā§āĻ āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻāĻžāϰā§āĻĻā§āϰ āϞāĻā§āώāĻžāϧāĻŋāĻ āĻā§āĻāĻŋ āĻāĻžāĻāĻž āĻĄā§āĻŦā§āĻāĻŋāϞ -- āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āĻāĻžāϰāϏāĻžāĻāĻŋāϰ āĻĢāϞā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻŦā§āϰāĻžāĻšāĻŋāĻŽ āĻāĻžāϞā§āĻĻā§āϰ āϤāĻĻāύā§āϤ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻŦā§āĻĻāύ⧠āĻĻāĻžāϝāĻŧā§āĻĻā§āϰ āύāĻžāĻŽ āĻāϏā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻā§āĻ āĻļāĻžāϏā§āϤāĻŋ āĻĒāĻžāϝāĻŧāύāĻŋāĨ¤ ⧍ā§Ļā§§ā§Ž āϏāĻžāϞ⧠āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ crash āĻšāϞā§āĨ¤ āĻāϰāĻĒāϰ DSE āĻŽā§āϤāĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§ āĻā§āϞ -- volume āĻāĻŽā§ āĻā§āĻā§, IPO āĻāĻŽā§ āĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻžāϰā§āϝāĻāϰ capital market āύāĻž āĻĨāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖā§ āĻā§āĻŽā§āĻĒāĻžāύāĻŋāĻā§āϞā§āĻā§ āĻļā§āϧ⧠āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ āĻāĻŖā§āϰ āĻāĻĒāϰ āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻāϰ āĻāϰāϤ⧠āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ -- āϝāĻž NPL āϏāĻāĻāĻāĻā§ āĻāϰāĻ āϤā§āĻŦā§āϰ āĻāϰā§āĻā§āĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§Ŧ: Bond Market āĻ Money Market-āĻāϰ āĻ āύā§āĻĒāϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤāĻŋ
āĻāύā§āύāϤ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāϤ⧠āĻāϰā§āĻĒā§āϰā§āĻ bond market āĻ money market āĻĨāĻžāĻā§ -- āϝā§āĻāĻžāύ⧠āĻā§āĻŽā§āĻĒāĻžāύāĻŋ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻāĻŽā§āϝāĻŧāĻžāĻĻā§ āϤāĻšāĻŦāĻŋāϞ āϏāĻāĻā§āϰāĻš āĻāϰā§āĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§ āĻāĻā§āϞ⧠āύāĻžāĻŽāĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĨ¤ āĻĢāϞ⧠⧧ā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ project āĻāϰāϤā§āĻ āĻā§āĻŽā§āĻĒāĻžāύāĻŋāĻā§ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ āĻĨā§āĻā§ āϏā§āĻŦāϞā§āĻĒāĻŽā§āϝāĻŧāĻžāĻĻā§ āĻāĻŖ āύāĻŋāϤ⧠āĻšāϝāĻŧ -- āϝāĻž asset-liability mismatch āϤā§āϰāĻŋ āĻāϰā§āĨ¤ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻ āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻāĻĨāĻž āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āĻĒāϰ āĻŦāĻāϰ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§, āĻāĻŋāĻā§āĻ āĻšāϝāĻŧāύāĻŋāĨ¤
āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻļā§āϰā§āϤāĻŋ | āĻĢāϞāĻžāĻĢāϞ |
Bank Companies Act āϏāĻāĻļā§āϧāύ (⧍ā§Ļā§§ā§Š) | āĻāĻāĻ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāϰ⧠ā§Ē āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻāĻžāϞāĻ āĻ āύā§āĻŽā§āĻĻāύ -- āĻāϞā§āĻā§ āĻĢāϞ |
Loan Classification āĻāĻ ā§āϰ āĻāϰāĻž | rescheduling āύāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻŽāĻŋāϤ āĻāϞā§āĻā§ |
Single borrower exposure limit | āĻŦāĻžāϰāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻļāĻŋāĻĨāĻŋāϞ āĻāϰāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ |
Bond Market āĻāύā§āύāϝāĻŧāύ | āĻā§āώāĻŖāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻĨā§āĻŽā§āĻā§ |
DFI āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāĻžāϰ | āĻāĻžāĻāĻā§ -- āĻŦāĻžāϏā§āϤāĻŦā§ āύāϝāĻŧ |
NPL Recovery Tribunal | āĻ āĻāĻžāϰā§āϝāĻāϰ -- āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āĻĒāϰ āĻŦāĻāϰ āĻŽāĻžāĻŽāϞāĻž |
āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻžāϤā§āϰ āĻĒāĻāύ āĻŦā§āĻāϞā§āύāĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āϏāĻŽāϏā§āϝāĻž āĻļā§āϧ⧠āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻāϝāĻŧā§ āϏā§āĻŽāĻžāĻŦāĻĻā§āϧ āĻāĻŋāϞ āύāĻžāĨ¤ āϰāĻžāĻāϏā§āĻŦ āĻ āĻŦāĻžāϏā§āϤāĻŦ āĻāĻžāϤā§āĻ āĻāĻāĻ āϰāĻāĻŽ āĻĒāĻāύ āĻāĻŽā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ āϏā§āĻāĻžāĻ āĻĒāϰāĻŦāϰā§āϤ⧠sectionāĨ¤
āĻĒāϤāύā§āϰ āĻŦā§āĻ -- āĻĒāϰā§āĻŦ ⧍: āϰāĻžāĻāϏā§āĻŦ āĻ āĻŦāĻžāϏā§āϤāĻŦ āĻāĻžāϤā§āϰ āĻĒāĻāύ
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§: āĻŽā§āĻāĻž āĻĒā§āϰāĻāϞā§āĻĒā§ GDP-āϰ āĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻāĻŖ āĻŦā§āĻĄāĻŧā§āĻā§ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ
āĻŽā§āĻāĻž āĻĒā§āϰāĻāϞā§āĻĒ āĻāĻŋāϞ boom-āĻāϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻĻā§āĻļā§āϝāĻŽāĻžāύ āĻ āĻāĻļāĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ āĻšāĻŋāϏāĻžāĻŦ āĻāϰāϞ⧠āĻāĻŦāĻŋāĻāĻž āĻāϞāĻžāĻĻāĻžāĨ¤
āĻĒā§āϰāĻāϞā§āĻĒ | āĻāύā§āĻŽāĻžāύāĻŋāĻ āĻŦā§āϝāϝāĻŧ | āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāĻžāϝāĻŧāύ āĻā§āϏ | āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ returns |
āĻĒāĻĻā§āĻŽāĻž āϏā§āϤ⧠| ~$ā§Š.ā§Ŧ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | āύāĻŋāĻāϏā§āĻŦ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāĻžāϝāĻŧāύ (controversial) | āϝāĻžāϤāĻžāϝāĻŧāĻžāϤ āĻāύā§āύāϤāĻŋ -- ROI āĻŽāĻžāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ |
āϰā§āĻĒāĻĒā§āϰ āĻĒāϰāĻŽāĻžāĻŖā§ āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āϝā§ā§āĻā§āύā§āĻĻā§āϰ | ~$⧧⧍.ā§Ŧā§Ģ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | Russian loan ($ā§§ā§§+ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ) | āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āϝā§ā§ āĻāϏāĻŦ⧠⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§+, āĻāĻŖ āĻāĻ āĻĨā§āĻā§ |
āĻĸāĻžāĻāĻž āĻŽā§āĻā§āϰā§āϰā§āϞ MRT-6 | ~$ā§Š.ā§Š āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | JICA loan | āϝāĻžāϤāĻžāϝāĻŧāĻžāϤ āĻāύā§āύāϤāĻŋ -- ROI āĻāĻžāϞ⧠|
āĻāϰā§āĻŖāĻĢā§āϞ⧠āĻāĻžāύā§āϞ | ~$ā§§.ā§§ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | Chinese loan | Use rate āĻāĻŽ -- ROI āĻĒā§āϰāĻļā§āύāĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āϧ |
āĻāϞāĻŋāĻā§āĻā§āĻĄ āĻāĻā§āϏāĻĒā§āϰā§āϏāĻāϝāĻŧā§ | ~$ā§§.ā§§ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | PPP | ROI āĻŽāĻžāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ |
āĻŽāĻžāϤāĻžāϰāĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧā§ Power Plant | ~$ā§Ē.ā§Ģ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | JICA loan | Coal-based -- āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦā§āĻļ āĻĒā§āϰāĻļā§āύ |
āĻŽā§āϞ āĻāĻĨāĻž: āĻāĻ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāϞā§āĻĒāĻā§āϞ⧠GDP āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋāϤ⧠contribution āϰā§āĻā§āĻā§ (āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āώāϤ āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻŽāĻžāĻŖāĻāĻžāϞā§)āĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāϰ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋāϰāĻāĻžāĻ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāĻžāϝāĻŧāύ āĻāϏā§āĻā§ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻāĻŽā§āϝāĻŧāĻžāĻĻā§ āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻāĻŖ āĻĨā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻā§āϰ GDP āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋ, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻžāϞāĻā§āϰ āĻāĻŖ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻļā§āϧā§āϰ āĻāĻžāĻĒāĨ¤ World Bank-āĻāϰ āϏāϤāϰā§āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰā§āϤāĻž āĻāĻŋāϞ āϝ⧠āĻāĻŋāĻā§ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāϞā§āĻĒā§āϰ cost-benefit ratio justify āĻāϰāĻž āĻāĻ āĻŋāύāĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻā§āϏāĻŦ-āĻāϰ āϏāĻžāĻŽāύ⧠āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻŦāĻŋāĻāĻžāϰ āĻĒāϰāĻžāĻāĻŋāϤ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§Ž: Energy Sector-āĻāϰ Capacity Payment āĻĢāĻžāĻāĻĻ
Quick Rental Power Plant -- ⧍ā§Ļā§§ā§Ļ āϏāĻžāϞā§āϰ āϏāĻŽāĻžāϧāĻžāύ āϝāĻž ā§§ā§Ģ āĻŦāĻāϰ āϧāϰ⧠āĻāϞāϞāĨ¤ āĻā§āĻā§āϤāĻŋāϰ āĻļāϰā§āϤ āĻāĻŋāϞ: āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āϝā§ā§ āύāĻŋāύ āĻŦāĻž āύāĻž āύāĻŋāύ, capacity payment āĻĻāĻŋāϤ⧠āĻšāĻŦā§āĨ¤ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāĻžā§ āĻŦāϏāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āϰā§āĻā§āĻ āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻž āĻĻāĻŋāϤ⧠āĻšāĻŦā§āĨ¤
CPD āĻ āĻŦāĻŋāĻāĻŋāύā§āύ āĻāĻŦā§āώāĻŖāĻžāϰ āĻ āύā§āĻŽāĻžāύ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§, āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ āĻāϤ āĻĻāĻļāĻā§ āĻļā§āϧ⧠capacity payment āĻšāĻŋāϏā§āĻŦā§ $⧍ā§Ļ-⧍ā§Ģ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύā§āϰ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨ āĻŦā§āϝāϝāĻŧ āĻāϰā§āĻā§ -- āϝāĻžāϰ āĻ āύā§āĻāĻāĻžāĻ āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āϝā§ā§ āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāĻšāĻžāϰ āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāĻāĨ¤ āĻāĻ āĻā§āĻā§āϤāĻŋāĻā§āϞā§āϰ āĻŽāĻžāϞāĻŋāĻāĻĻā§āϰ āĻ āύā§āĻā§āĻ āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻāĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āϏāĻāϝā§āĻā§āϤ āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāϏāĻžāϝāĻŧā§ -- S Alam Group, Orion Group, Summit Group, BeximcoāĨ¤ āĻā§āώāϤāĻŋ āĻāύāĻāĻŖā§āϰ, āϞāĻžāĻ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āϏāĻāĻā§āϰā§āĻŖ āĻā§āώā§āĻ ā§āϰāĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ⧝: Hidden Subsidies āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻ āϏā§āĻĨāĻžāϝāĻŧā§ āϏāĻŽāĻžāϧāĻžāύ
Energy āĻĻāĻžāĻŽ āĻā§āϤā§āϰāĻŋāĻŽāĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āĻāĻŽ āϰāĻžāĻāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞ āĻāϰā§āϤā§āĻāĻŋ āĻĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĨ¤ āĻā§āϝāĻžāϏ, āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āϝā§ā§, āĻĄāĻŋāĻā§āϞ, āϏāĻžāϰ, āĻāĻžāĻĻā§āϝāĻļāϏā§āϝ -- āϏāĻŦ āĻā§āώā§āϤā§āϰā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻ āĻāϰā§āϤā§āĻāĻŋ āĻā§āĻĨāĻž āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻāϏāϤ? āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ āĻāĻŖ āĻĨā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻŽāĻžāύ⧠āĻāĻāĻā§āϰ āϏāϏā§āϤāĻž āĻā§āϝāĻžāϏ, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻžāϞāĻā§āϰ āĻāĻŖ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻļā§āϧāĨ¤ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍-āĻ āϝāĻāύ āĻāύā§āϤāϰā§āĻāĻžāϤāĻŋāĻ āĻĻāĻžāĻŽ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāϞ, āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻĒāĻā§āώ⧠āĻāϰā§āϤā§āĻāĻŋ āĻŦāĻšāύ āĻ āϏāĻŽā§āĻāĻŦ āĻšāϞā§āĨ¤ āϤāĻāύ āĻāĻāϏāĻžāĻĨā§ āĻĻāĻžāĻŽ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāϤ⧠āĻšāϞ⧠-- āĻāϰ āϏā§āĻ āĻĻāĻžāĻŽ-āĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋāϰ āϧāĻžāĻā§āĻāĻž inflation-āĻ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŖāϤ āĻšāϞā§āĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§§ā§Ļ: Tax-GDP Ratio ā§Ŧ.ā§Ž% -- āĻĢāĻžāĻāĻĒāĻž āĻāĻŋāϤā§āϤāĻŋ
āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻāĻā§āϰ āĻāĻžāĻ āĻžāĻŽā§āĻāϤ āϏāĻŽāϏā§āϝāĻžāĨ¤ CPD-āϰ āϤāĻĨā§āϝ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§ tax-to-GDP ratio āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰ ā§Ŧ.ā§Ž% -- āĻĻāĻā§āώāĻŋāĻŖ āĻāĻļāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāϝāĻŧ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύāĨ¤ āϤā§āϞāύāĻžāϝāĻŧ: āĻāĻžāϰāϤ ~ā§§ā§§%, āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āϤāύāĻžāĻŽ ~ā§§ā§Ģ%, āĻāύā§āĻĻā§āύā§āĻļāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻž ~⧧⧍%, OECD āĻāĻĄāĻŧ ā§Šā§Ē%āĨ¤
āĻĻā§āĻļ | Tax-GDP Ratio (āĻāύā§āĻŽāĻžāύāĻŋāĻ) | āĻŽāĻžāĻĨāĻžāĻĒāĻŋāĻā§ Tax-āĻāϰ āϏāĻā§āώāĻŽāϤāĻž |
āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ | ā§Ŧ.ā§Ž% | āĻĻāĻā§āώāĻŋāĻŖ āĻāĻļāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāϰ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύ |
āĻāĻžāϰāϤ | ~ā§§ā§§% | ā§§.ā§Ŧx āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ |
āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āϤāύāĻžāĻŽ | ~ā§§ā§Ģ% | ⧍.⧍x āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ |
āĻāύā§āĻĻā§āύā§āĻļāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻž | ~⧧⧍% | ā§§.ā§x āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ |
āĻĨāĻžāĻāϞā§āϝāĻžāύā§āĻĄ | ~ā§§ā§% | ⧍.ā§Ģx āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ |
OECD āĻāĻĄāĻŧ | ~ā§Šā§Ē% | ā§Ģx āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ |
āĻāĻŽ āĻāϰ = āĻāĻŽ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻ (āĻļāĻŋāĻā§āώāĻž, āϏā§āĻŦāĻžāϏā§āĻĨā§āϝ, āĻ āĻŦāĻāĻžāĻ āĻžāĻŽā§) = āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻāĻŖ āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻāϰāϤāĻžāĨ¤ ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ boom-āĻāĻ āĻāĻ āϏāĻŽāϏā§āϝāĻž āϏāĻŽāĻžāϧāĻžāύ āĻšāϝāĻŧāύāĻŋ -- āĻŦāϰāĻ āϧāύā§āĻĻā§āϰ āĻāύā§āϝ āĻāϰ āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧ, Black money whitening-āĻāϰ āĻŽāĻžāϧā§āϝāĻŽā§ structural āϏāĻŽāϏā§āϝāĻž āĻāϰāĻ āĻāĻā§āϰ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§§ā§§: RMG-āĻ¤ā§ ā§Žā§Ģ% āϰāĻĒā§āϤāĻžāύāĻŋ -- āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻļā§āϰ āĻāĻĒāϰ āĻĻāĻžāĻāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāύā§
WinTK-āϰ āϤāĻĨā§āϝ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§, āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻŽā§āĻ āϰāĻĒā§āϤāĻžāύāĻŋāϰ ā§Žā§Ģ% RMG (āĻāĻžāϰā§āĻŽā§āύā§āĻāϏ) sector āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻāϏā§, āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻāĻ RMG-āϰ āĻĻā§āĻ-āϤā§āϤā§āϝāĻŧāĻžāĻāĻļ āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ US āĻ EUāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻĻā§āĻŦāĻŋāĻā§āĻŖ concentration -- āĻĒāĻŖā§āϝ⧠āĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻžāϰā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āϤāύāĻžāĻŽ, āĻāύā§āĻĻā§āύā§āĻļāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻž, āĻāĻžāϰāϤ -- āϏāĻŦāĻžāϰ āϰāĻĒā§āϤāĻžāύāĻŋ āĻāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāύā§āĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ sector āĻāĻžāĻāϞ⧠āĻĒā§āϰ⧠āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋ āĻāĻžāĻāĻĒā§āĨ¤
Diversification-āĻāϰ āϏāĻŽā§āĻāĻžāĻŦāύāĻž āĻāĻŋāϞ -- āĻāĻžāĻŽāĻĄāĻŧāĻž, āĻāώā§āϧ, IT āϏā§āĻŦāĻž, jute, frozen food, ceramicsāĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻāĻŋ sector-āĻāϰ āϏāĻŽā§āĻāĻžāĻŦāύāĻž āĻāĻŋāϞ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠policy attention āĻĒāĻžāϝāĻŧāύāĻŋāĨ¤ āĻā§āύ? āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ RMG-āϰ established player-āϰāĻž (BGMEA-āϰ āύā§āϤā§āϤā§āĻŦ, āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āĻāĻžāϰāĻāĻžāύāĻžāĻŽāĻžāϞāĻŋāĻāϰāĻž) āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻāĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋāĻļāĻžāϞ⧠āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ āύāϤā§āύ sector āĻŽāĻžāύ⧠āύāϤā§āύ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāϝā§āĻā§āĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ⧧⧍: Skilled Unemployment āĻ āĻļāĻŋāĻā§āώāĻž-āĻāĻžāĻāϰāĻŋ Mismatch
āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻāϰ ⧍ā§Ļ āϞāĻā§āώ āϤāϰā§āĻŖ āĻāĻžāĻāϰāĻŋāϰ āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ⧠āĻĸā§āĻā§āύāĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠RMG-āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻāϰ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāϤ⧠āύāϤā§āύ āĻāϰā§āĻŽāϏāĻāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāύ āĻļā§āϰāĻŽāĻŋāĻ-āĻĒāϰā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§āĨ¤ āĻļāĻŋāĻā§āώāĻŋāϤ āϤāϰā§āĻŖāĻĻā§āϰ āĻāύā§āϝ āĻāĻžāĻāϰāĻŋ āĻāĻŽāĨ¤ ILO-āϰ āϤāĻĨā§āϝ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§ āĻļāĻŋāĻā§āώāĻŋāϤ āϤāϰā§āĻŖ (āϤā§āϤā§āϝāĻŧ āĻļāĻŋāĻā§āώāĻžāϏā§āϤāϰ āϏāĻŽā§āĻĒāύā§āύ)-āĻĻā§āϰ āĻŽāϧā§āϝ⧠āĻŦā§āĻāĻžāϰāϤā§āĻŦ ā§§ā§Ģ%+āĨ¤ āĻāĻĻā§āϰ āĻ āύā§āĻā§āĻ āĻŦāĻžāϧā§āϝ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§ underemployment-āĻ āϝāĻžāύ -- āĻāĻžāĻāĻā§ āĻāĻžāĻāϰāĻŋ āĻāĻā§, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠skill āĻ āĻŦā§āϤāύ āĻāĻāϝāĻŧāĻ āĻ āĻĒāĻāϝāĻŧ āĻšāĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§§ā§Š: Real Wage āϏā§āĻĨāĻŦāĻŋāϰāϤāĻž -- GDP āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋāϰ āϞā§āĻāĻžāύ⧠āϏāϤā§āϝ
GDP āĻŦā§āĻĄāĻŧā§āĻā§ ā§% āĻšāĻžāϰā§, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āϏāĻžāϧāĻžāϰāĻŖ āĻļā§āϰāĻŽāĻŋāĻā§āϰ real wage āϏāĻŽāĻžāύ āĻšāĻžāϰ⧠āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧā§āύāĻŋāĨ¤ The Business Standard-āĻāϰ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āϞā§āώāĻŖ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§, āĻŽāĻā§āϰāĻŋ āĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋāϰ āĻšāĻžāϰ āĻāĻžāύāĻž ⧍ā§Ŧ āĻŽāĻžāϏ āϧāϰ⧠inflation-āĻāϰ āύāĻŋāĻā§ āĻāĻŋāϞ -- āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāĻžā§ real wage āĻāĻŽāĻā§āĨ¤ GDP āĻā§āϰāĻžāĻĢ āĻāĻĒāϰā§, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻĒāĻā§āĻā§ āĻāĻžāĻāĻž āĻāĻŽāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻžāĻ 'jobless growth' āĻŦāĻž 'wageless growth' -- āϝāĻž āϏāĻžāĻŽāĻžāĻāĻŋāĻ āĻ āϏāύā§āϤā§āώā§āϰ āĻāĻŋāϤā§āϤāĻŋ āϤā§āϰāĻŋ āĻāϰā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤
āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻ, āϰāĻžāĻāϏā§āĻŦ, āϰāĻĒā§āϤāĻžāύāĻŋ -- āϤāĻŋāύāĻāĻŋ āϏā§āϤāĻŽā§āĻā§āĻ āĻĒāĻāύāĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻŋāĻĒāĻā§āĻāύāĻ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻžāĻā§āϞ⧠āĻāĻŋāϞ āĻŽā§āĻĻā§āϰāĻž āĻ āϏā§āĻļāĻžāϏāύā§āĨ¤ āϏā§āĻāĻžāĻ āĻĒāϰā§āϰ sectionāĨ¤
āĻĒāϤāύā§āϰ āĻŦā§āĻ -- āĻĒāϰā§āĻŦ ā§Š: āĻŽā§āĻĻā§āϰāĻž, āϰāĻŋāĻāĻžāϰā§āĻ āĻ āϏā§āĻļāĻžāϏāύā§āϰ āĻĒāĻāύ
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§§ā§Ē: Taka-āϰ āĻā§āϤā§āϰāĻŋāĻŽ āĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋ -- Reserve āĻĒā§āĻĄāĻŧāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§
⧍ā§Ļā§§ā§ āĻĨā§āĻ⧠⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍ āĻĒāϰā§āϝāύā§āϤ Taka āĻā§āϤā§āϰāĻŋāĻŽāĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋāĻļāĻžāϞ⧠āϰāĻžāĻāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ-āĻāĻŋāϤā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāĻŽāϝāĻŧ āĻšāĻžāϰ āϝā§āĻāĻžāύ⧠⧧⧧ā§Ļ-⧧⧍ā§Ļ āĻšāĻāϝāĻŧāĻžāϰ āĻāĻĨāĻž āĻāĻŋāϞ, āϏā§āĻāĻžāύ⧠āĻāύā§āώā§āĻ āĻžāύāĻŋāĻāĻāĻžāĻŦā§ ā§Žā§Ģ-ā§Žā§ āϧāϰ⧠āϰāĻžāĻāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻā§āĻāĻžāĻŦā§? Bangladesh Bank āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻĻāĻŋāύ āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ⧠dollar āĻŦāĻŋāĻā§āϰāĻŋ āĻāϰāϤ -- āĻāĻ dollar āĻāϏāϤ foreign reserve āĻĨā§āĻā§āĨ¤
āĻāĻ āĻā§āϤā§āϰāĻŋāĻŽ āĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋāϰ āĻĒā§āĻāύ⧠āĻĻā§āĻāĻŋ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāĻĨāĻŽ: āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ -- Taka āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞ āĻšāϞ⧠import āĻŦā§āϝāϝāĻŧāĻŦāĻšā§āϞ āĻšāϝāĻŧ, āĻāĻŋāύāĻŋāϏā§āϰ āĻĻāĻžāĻŽ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧā§, āĻāύāĻĒā§āϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧāϤāĻž āĻāĻŽā§āĨ¤ āĻĻā§āĻŦāĻŋāϤā§āϝāĻŧ: āϝāĻžāϰāĻž āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āĻļā§ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨ āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ āĻāϰāĻāĻŋāϞā§āύ, āϤāĻžāĻĻā§āϰ āĻāύā§āϝ Taka āĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋāĻļāĻžāϞ⧠āĻĨāĻžāĻāĻž āϞāĻžāĻāĻāύāĻ -- āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ dollar āĻĒāĻžāĻāϝāĻŧāĻž āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧ convert-āĻāĨ¤ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍-āĻ āϝāĻāύ reserve āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻļā§āώ, āϤāĻāύ āĻāϰ āϏāĻŽā§āĻāĻŦ āĻšāϞ⧠āύāĻž -- Taka āĻāĻāϏāĻžāĻĨā§ ā§Ēā§Ļ%+ āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧāϞāĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§§ā§Ģ: Reserve Overstatement -- IMF-āĻāϰ āϞāĻā§āĻāĻžāĻāύāĻ āĻšāϏā§āϤāĻā§āώā§āĻĒ
Bangladesh Bank āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻāĻĻāĻŋāύ āĻā§āϰāϏ (gross) reserve-āĻā§ usable reserve āĻšāĻŋāϏā§āĻŦā§ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāĻžāĻļ āĻāϰāĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ Reserve-āĻāϰ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻ āĻāĻļ āĻāĻŋāϞ Export Development Fund (EDF), Long-term Financing Facility (LTFF) āĻāϤā§āϝāĻžāĻĻāĻŋāϤ⧠-- āϝāĻž āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤāĻĒāĻā§āώ⧠āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāĻšāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻ āϝā§āĻā§āϝāĨ¤ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍-ā§¨ā§Š-āĻ IMF āĻŦāĻžāϧā§āϝ āĻāϰ⧠BPM6 standard āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§ reporting āĻāϰāϤā§āĨ¤ āĻĢāϞ⧠āϝ⧠reserve $ā§Ēā§Ļ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ āĻĻā§āĻāĻžāύ⧠āĻšāĻā§āĻāĻŋāϞ, āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ usable āĻāĻŋāϞ $⧍⧍-⧍ā§Ģ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻŋ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻāύā§āϝ āĻāĻŋāϞ āϞāĻā§āĻāĻžāϰ āĻŽā§āĻšā§āϰā§āϤāĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§§ā§Ŧ: Bangladesh Bank-āĻāϰ Independence-āĻāϰ āĻ āĻāĻžāĻŦ
āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āϏā§āĻŦāĻžāϧā§āύ āĻā§āύā§āĻĻā§āϰā§āϝāĻŧ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ āĻšāϞ⧠āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤāĻŋāĻļā§āϞāϤāĻžāϰ āĻāĻŋāϤā§āϤāĻŋāĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§ āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻāύā§āĻ āĻāĻŋāϞ āύāĻžāĨ¤ Governor āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻ, monetary policy āĻ āϰā§āĻĨ āĻŽāύā§āϤā§āϰāĻŖāĻžāϞāϝāĻŧā§āϰ āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻĻā§āĻļā§, regulation āĻļāĻŋāĻĨāĻŋāϞ āĻāϰāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧ āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāϏāĻžāϝāĻŧāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻžāĻĒā§āĨ¤ Bangladesh Bank-āĻāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāĻā§āϤāύ Governor Atiur Rahman-āĻāϰ āϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧ Reserve Heist (⧍ā§Ļā§§ā§Ŧ, $ā§Žā§§ āĻŽāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ āĻā§āϰāĻŋ) -- āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻŋāϞ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāώā§āĻ āĻžāύā§āϰ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻžāϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ symptomāĨ¤ āĻāϰāĻĒāϰāĻ āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāĻžāϰ āĻšāϝāĻŧāύāĻŋāĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§§ā§: Hundi āĻ Informal Economy-āϰ āĻŦāĻŋāϏā§āϤāĻžāϰ
Taka āĻā§āϤā§āϰāĻŋāĻŽāĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋāĻļāĻžāϞ⧠āϰāĻžāĻāĻž āĻ official channel-āĻ exchange rate gap-āĻāϰ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖā§ hundi (informal remittance) āĻāύāĻĒā§āϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍-⧍ā§Ē āϏāĻžāϞ⧠āĻāĻ āϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧ hundi-āϰ āĻŽāĻžāϧā§āϝāĻŽā§ āĻāϏāĻž remittance official-āĻāϰ āĻāĻžāĻāĻžāĻāĻžāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ Hundi-āϰ āĻāĻžāĻāĻž āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻĢāϰā§āĻā§āϏ āϰāĻŋāĻāĻžāϰā§āĻā§ āĻāϏ⧠āύāĻž -- āϤāĻŦā§ āĻā§āϰāĻšā§āϤāĻžāϰ āĻšāĻžāϤ⧠āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻĻāĻžāĻŽ āĻĒāĻžāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āĻāĻ informal economy-āϰ āĻŦāĻŋāϏā§āϤāĻžāϰ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŽāĻžāĻĒā§āϰ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϰ⧠āĻāϞ⧠āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤
āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž ā§§ā§Ž: Crony Capitalism-āĻāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϤāĻŋāώā§āĻ āĻžāύāĻŋāĻā§āĻāϰāĻŖ
āĻāĻ āϏāĻŦ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻžāϰ āĻŽā§āϞ⧠āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϤāĻŋāώā§āĻ āĻžāύāĻŋāĻ āϏāĻŽāϏā§āϝāĻž: āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻā§āώāĻŽāϤāĻž āĻ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āϏā§āĻŦāĻŋāϧāĻž āĻāĻāĻ āĻšāĻžāϤ⧠āĻā§āύā§āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻā§āϤ āĻšāĻāϝāĻŧāĻžāĨ¤ Hasina āĻāĻŽāϞ⧠S Alam, Beximco, Orion, Summit, Bashundhara, Meghna -- āĻāĻĻā§āϰ āϏāĻžāĻĨā§ āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āϝā§āĻāĻžāϝā§āĻ āϤāĻžāĻĻā§āϰ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ, energy, real estate, telecom -- āϏāĻŦ sector-āĻ āĻāĻāĻā§āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻž āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāύ āĻĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ āĻāĻ āĻā§āώā§āĻ ā§āĻā§āϞā§āĻ NPL-āĻāϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āĻāĻŖāĻā§āϰāĻšā§āϤāĻž, capacity payment-āĻāϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āϏā§āĻŦāĻŋāϧāĻžāĻā§āĻā§, āĻāĻŦāĻ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨ āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻžāϰāĻāĻžāϰā§āĨ¤
ā§§ā§ŽāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻžāĻ āĻžāĻŽā§āĻāϤ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž -- āϏāĻžāϰāϏāĻāĻā§āώā§āĻĒ |
ā§§. NPL rescheduling-āĻ āϞā§āĻāĻžāύ⧠|
⧍. āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ āϞāĻžāĻāϏā§āύā§āϏ āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻŦāĻŋāϤāϰāĻŖ |
ā§Š. Shell company-āϰ āĻŽāĻžāϧā§āϝāĻŽā§ āĻāĻŖ āϞā§āĻ |
ā§Ē. Money laundering āĻ capital flight ($ā§-ā§ŽB/āĻŦāĻāϰ) |
ā§Ģ. Stock market āĻā§āϞā§āĻā§āĻāĻžāϰāĻŋāϰ āĻāĻā§āϰ |
ā§Ŧ. Bond market āĻ money market āĻ āύā§āĻĒāϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤ |
ā§. āĻŽā§āĻāĻž āĻĒā§āϰāĻāϞā§āĻĒā§ āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻāĻŖā§āϰ āĻĒāĻžāĻšāĻžāĻĄāĻŧ |
ā§Ž. Capacity payment āĻĢāĻžāĻāĻĻ ($⧍ā§Ļ-⧍ā§ĢB+ āĻŦā§āϝāϝāĻŧ) |
⧝. Hidden subsidies āĻ āĻāύā§āϤāϰā§āĻāĻžāϤāĻŋāĻ shock-āĻāϰ exposure |
ā§§ā§Ļ. Tax-GDP ā§Ŧ.ā§Ž% -- āĻĻāĻā§āώāĻŋāĻŖ āĻāĻļāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāϝāĻŧ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύ |
ā§§ā§§. RMG-āĻ¤ā§ ā§Žā§Ģ% āϰāĻĒā§āϤāĻžāύāĻŋ concentration |
⧧⧍. Skilled unemployment āĻ āĻļāĻŋāĻā§āώāĻž-āĻāĻžāĻāϰāĻŋ mismatch |
ā§§ā§Š. Real wage āϏā§āĻĨāĻŦāĻŋāϰāϤāĻž (⧍ā§Ŧ āĻŽāĻžāϏ inflation-āĻāϰ āύāĻŋāĻā§) |
ā§§ā§Ē. Taka-āϰ āĻā§āϤā§āϰāĻŋāĻŽ āĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋ (reserve āĻĒā§āĻĄāĻŧāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§) |
ā§§ā§Ģ. Reserve overstatement (gross vs net) |
ā§§ā§Ŧ. Bangladesh Bank-āĻāϰ independence-āĻāϰ āĻ āĻāĻžāĻŦ |
ā§§ā§. Hundi āĻ informal economy āĻŦāĻŋāϏā§āϤāĻžāϰ |
ā§§ā§Ž. Crony capitalism āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϤāĻŋāώā§āĻ āĻžāύāĻŋāĻā§āĻāϰāĻŖ |
āĻāĻ ā§§ā§ŽāĻāĻŋ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž āĻāĻā§ āĻ āĻĒāϰā§āϰ āϏāĻžāĻĨā§ āϝā§āĻā§āϤ -- āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻāĻŋāĻā§ āĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋ āĻĻā§āϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āĻāĻāύ āĻŦā§āĻāĻŦā§āύ āĻā§āύ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ "āĻŽāĻžāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ" āĻŦāĻžāĻāϰā§āϰ āĻāĻĄāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋ āĻāϤ āĻĻā§āϰā§āϤ āĻā§āĻā§ āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧāϞāĨ¤ āϤāĻŋāύāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻĄāĻŧ āĻāϏā§āĻāĻŋāϞ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ļ-⧍ā§Ŧ-āĻ -- COVID, ⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍-āĻāϰ dollar shock, āĻāĻŦāĻ ā§¨ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ē-āĻāϰ āĻā§āϞāĻžāĻ āĻ āĻā§āϝā§āϤā§āĻĨāĻžāύāĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻĄāĻŧā§ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āϏā§āϤāϰā§āϰ āĻĢāĻžāĻāϞ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāĻžāĻļ āĻĒā§āϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āϏā§āĻāĻžāĻ āĻĒāϰā§āϰ sectionāĨ¤
āĻĒā§āϰāĻĨāĻŽ āĻāĻžāĻāĻā§āύāĻŋ -- COVID-19 (⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ļ-⧍⧧) āĻāĻŦāĻ āϤāĻžāϰ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻ āĻāĻžāϝāĻŧāĻž
āĻ āύā§āĻā§ āĻŽāύ⧠āĻāϰā§āύ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āϏāĻāĻāĻ āĻļā§āϰ⧠⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍ āϏāĻžāϞā§āĨ¤ āϏāĻ āĻŋāĻ āύāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āĻļā§āϰ⧠⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ļ āϏāĻžāϞā§, COVID-19 āĻŽāĻšāĻžāĻŽāĻžāϰā§āϤā§āĨ¤ COVID āϏāϰāĻžāϏāϰāĻŋ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļāĻžāϞ collapse āĻāύā§āύāĻŋ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§ -- āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻā§āϤāϰā§āϰ āĻĒāĻāύāĻā§ āϤā§āĻŦāϰāĻžāύā§āĻŦāĻŋāϤ āĻāϰā§āĻā§ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻāĻŦāĻŋāώā§āϝ⧠āϏāĻāĻāĻā§āϰ bridge āϤā§āϰāĻŋ āĻāϰā§āĻā§āĨ¤
RMG-āϤ⧠āĻāĻāĻžāϤ -- $ā§Š+ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ order āĻŦāĻžāϤāĻŋāϞ
āĻŽāĻžāϰā§āĻ-āĻāĻĒā§āϰāĻŋāϞ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ļ-āĻ āĻĒāĻļā§āĻāĻŋāĻŽāĻž āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ⧠āĻĻā§āĻāĻžāύ āĻŦāύā§āϧāĨ¤ Walmart, H&M, Zara, Primark -- āϏāĻŦāĻžāĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļāĻŋ RMG-āϰ āĻ āϰā§āĻĄāĻžāϰ āĻŦāĻžāϤāĻŋāϞ āĻāϰāϞ āĻŦāĻž āϏā§āĻĨāĻāĻŋāϤ āĻāϰāϞāĨ¤ BGMEA-āϰ āϤāĻĨā§āϝ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§ $ā§Š+ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ order āĻŦāĻžāϤāĻŋāϞ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ āĻ āύā§āĻ āĻāĻžāϰāĻāĻžāύāĻž āĻļā§āϰāĻŽāĻŋāĻāĻĻā§āϰ āĻŦā§āϤāύ āĻĻāĻŋāϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϰā§āύāĻŋāĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāĻā§ āĻāĻžāϰāĻāĻžāύāĻž āĻŦāύā§āϧ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤ RMG-āϰ āĻāĻĒāϰ āĻ āϤāĻŋāύāĻŋāϰā§āĻāϰāĻļā§āϞāϤāĻžāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻĨāĻŽ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ warning sign āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻŋāϞ -- āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻā§āĻ āĻŽāύ⧠āϰāĻžāĻā§āύāĻŋāĨ¤
Migrant Worker āϏāĻāĻāĻ -- Remittance lifeline-āĻ āĻāĻžāĻĒ
Gulf āĻĻā§āĻļāĻā§āϞ⧠āĻĨā§āĻā§ āϞāĻā§āώāĻžāϧāĻŋāĻ āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦāĻžāϏ⧠āĻļā§āϰāĻŽāĻŋāĻ āĻĢāĻŋāϰ⧠āĻāϞā§āύāĨ¤ āϤā§āϞā§āϰ āĻĻāĻžāĻŽ āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāϝāĻŧ Saudi Arabia, UAE-āϤ⧠āĻŦāĻšā§ āĻā§āĻŽā§āĻĒāĻžāύāĻŋ āĻāϰā§āĻŽā§ āĻāĻžāĻāĻāĻžāĻ āĻāϰāϞāĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāĻĨāĻŽ āĻĻāĻŋāĻā§ remittance āĻāĻŽāĻžāϰ āĻāĻļāĻā§āĻāĻž āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ āϤāĻŦ⧠⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ļ-⧍⧧-āĻ āĻĻā§āĻāĻž āĻā§āϞ remittance āĻŦā§āĻĄāĻŧā§āĻā§ -- āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦāĻžāϏā§āϰāĻž āĻĻā§āĻļā§ fixed expenses-āĻāϰ āĻāύā§āϝ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻāĻžāĻāĻž āĻĒāĻžāĻ āĻžāĻā§āĻāĻŋāϞā§āύāĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻŋāϞ one-time bump -- long-term-āĻ migrant labor market-āĻ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāϰā§āϤāύ āĻāϏā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤
Recovery Debt -- āĻļā§āϰā§āϞāĻā§āĻāĻžāϰ āϏāϤāϰā§āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰā§āϤāĻž
COVID āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻŦā§āϰ āĻšāϤ⧠āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰ āĻŦāĻŋāĻāĻŋāύā§āύ stimulus package āĻā§āώāĻŖāĻž āĻāϰāϞ -- āĻā§āĻ āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāϏāĻžāϝāĻŧ, āĻā§āώāĻŋāϤā§, āĻļāĻŋāϞā§āĻĒā§āĨ¤ āĻāϰ āĻāύā§āϝ āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻāĻŖ āĻ āϏā§āĻĨāĻžāύā§āϝāĻŧ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ āĻāĻŖ āĻŦā§āĻĄāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻļā§āϰā§āϞāĻā§āĻāĻžāĻ āĻāĻāĻ āĻāĻžāĻ āĻāϰā§āĻāĻŋāϞ -- COVID-āĻ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻĒāĻ āĻāĻŖ āύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ stimulus, āϝāĻž āĻĒāϰ⧠debt crisis-āĻāϰ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ āĻāĻžāĻā§āϝāĻā§āϰāĻŽā§ āĻĒā§āϰā§āĻĒā§āϰāĻŋ āϏā§āĻ āĻĒāĻĨā§ āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧāύāĻŋ, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ āĻāĻŖ-GDP ratio ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ļ-āĻāϰ ā§Šā§Ē% āĻĨā§āĻ⧠⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ-āĻ ā§Šā§¯%+-āĻ āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤
Money Supply āϏāĻŽā§āĻĒā§āϰāϏāĻžāϰāĻŖ -- āĻāĻŦāĻŋāώā§āϝ⧠Inflation-āĻāϰ āĻŦā§āĻ
Bangladesh Bank COVID-āĻ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻĒāĻ monetary stimulus āĻĻāĻŋāϞ -- low interest rate, refinance scheme, loan moratoriumāĨ¤ Money supply āĻĻā§āϰā§āϤ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāϞāĨ¤ āϏā§āĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāϤāĻŋ money supply ⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍-āĻ supply shock-āĻāϰ āϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧ inflation-āĻ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŖāϤ āĻšāϞā§āĨ¤ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāĻžā§ āĻāĻāĻā§āϰ stimulus, āĻāĻžāϞāĻā§āϰ inflationāĨ¤
COVID āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āϏāϰāĻžāϏāϰāĻŋ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āϏāĻāĻāĻ āϤā§āϰāĻŋ āύāĻž āĻāϰāϞā§āĻ āĻĻā§āĻāĻŋ āĻāĻžāĻ āĻāϰā§āĻā§: (ā§§) āĻā§āϤāϰā§āϰ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻžāĻā§āϞā§āĻā§ āĻāϰāĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§, (⧍) āĻĒāϰāĻŦāϰā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻĄāĻŧā§āϰ āĻāύā§āϝ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļāĻā§ āĻāϰāĻ exposed āĻāϰā§āĻā§āĨ¤ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍-āĻ āϝāĻāύ Russia-Ukraine āĻļā§āϰ⧠āĻšāϞā§, āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ āĻāĻā§āϰ āĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞ āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤
āĻĻā§āĻŦāĻŋāϤā§āϝāĻŧ āĻāĻĄāĻŧ -- Russia-Ukraine, Dollar Crunch āĻ Reserve Crisis (⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍-ā§¨ā§Š)
āĻĢā§āĻŦā§āϰā§āϝāĻŧāĻžāϰāĻŋ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍-āĻ Russia āĻāĻāĻā§āϰā§āύ āĻāĻā§āϰāĻŽāĻŖ āĻāϰāϞāĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āϏāϰāĻžāϏāϰāĻŋ āĻā§āύ⧠āϏāĻŽā§āĻĒāϰā§āĻ āύā§āĻ āĻāĻ āϝā§āĻĻā§āϧā§āϰ āϏāĻžāĻĨā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻĒāϰā§āϰ ā§§ā§Ž āĻŽāĻžāϏ⧠āĻāĻ āϝā§āĻĻā§āϧ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻā§ āϝā§āĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āĻāĻāĻžāϤ āĻāϰāϞ -- āϏā§āĻāĻŋ āĻāĻā§ āĻā§āĻ āĻāĻžāĻŦā§āύāĻŋāĨ¤
Commodity Shock -- āϤā§āϞ, āĻā§āϝāĻžāϏ, āĻāĻŽ āĻāĻāϏāĻžāĻĨā§
āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ āĻāĻ āϤāĻŋāύāĻāĻŋāĻ import āĻāϰā§āĨ¤ āϝā§āĻĻā§āϧ āĻļā§āϰā§āϰ āĻāϝāĻŧā§āĻ āĻŽāĻžāϏā§āϰ āĻŽāϧā§āϝā§: Brent crude $ā§ā§Ģ āĻĨā§āĻā§ $⧧⧍ā§Ļ+, European LNG ā§Ē-ā§Ģ āĻā§āĻŖ āĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋ, āĻāĻŽā§āϰ āĻĻāĻžāĻŽ āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻĻā§āĻŦāĻŋāĻā§āĻŖāĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ import bill āĻāĻ āĻŦāĻāϰ⧠$⧍ā§Ļ+ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ āĻŦā§āĻĄāĻŧā§ āĻā§āϞāĨ¤
Fed Rate Hike -- Dollar Tsunami
āĻāĻāĻ āϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧā§ US Federal Reserve inflation āύāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύā§āϤā§āϰāĻŖā§ interest rate ā§Ļ% āĻĨā§āĻā§ ā§Ģ.ā§Ģ%-āĻ āύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āĻā§āϞ -- ā§Ēā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻĻā§āϰā§āϤ āĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋāĨ¤ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āĻŦāĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻĒā§ dollar āĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋāĻļāĻžāϞ⧠āĻšāϞā§, emerging market āĻĨā§āĻā§ capital āĻŦā§āϰ āĻšāϤ⧠āĻļā§āϰ⧠āĻāϰāϞāĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻāύā§āϝ āĻāϰ āĻŽāĻžāύā§: āĻāĻāĻ dollar āĻāĻŋāύāϤ⧠āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ Taka āϞāĻžāĻāĻŦā§āĨ¤
Reserve Drain -- $ā§Ēā§ŽB āĻĨā§āĻā§ $⧍ā§ĻB
Bangladesh Bank Taka āϧāϰ⧠āϰāĻžāĻāϤ⧠āĻāĻā§āϰāĻžāϏā§āĻāĻžāĻŦā§ dollar āĻŦāĻŋāĻā§āϰāĻŋ āĻāϰāϞāĨ¤ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧧-āĻāϰ peak-āĻ reserve āĻāĻŋāϞ $ā§Ēā§Ž āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύāĨ¤ ⧍ā§Ļā§¨ā§Š-āĻāϰ āĻļā§āώ⧠āύā§āĻŽā§ āĻāϞ $⧍ā§Ļ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ⧠-- āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ ā§Ŧā§Ļ% draināĨ¤ āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰ ⧍ āĻŦāĻāϰā§āĨ¤ āϤāĻāύ āĻāϰ āϏāĻŽā§āĻāĻŦ āĻāĻŋāϞ āύāĻž Taka āϧāϰ⧠āϰāĻžāĻāĻžāĨ¤ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍-āĻ āĻāĻāϏāĻžāĻĨā§ Taka ā§Žā§Ģ āĻĨā§āĻā§ ā§§ā§§ā§Ļ-āĻ āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧāϞāĨ¤ ⧍ā§Ļā§¨ā§Š-⧍ā§Ē-āĻ ā§§ā§¨ā§Ļ-āĻāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻā§āϰ ⧧⧍⧍āĨ¤ āĻŽā§āĻ ā§Ēā§Ļ%+ āĻ āĻŦāĻŽā§āϞā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧāύāĨ¤
IMF $ā§Ē.ā§ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ Bailout -- 'āĻāĻŽāϰāĻž āĻāϤā§āĻŽāϏāĻŽāϰā§āĻĒāĻŖ āĻāϰāĻāĻŋ' āĻŽā§āĻšā§āϰā§āϤ
āĻāĻžāύā§āϝāĻŧāĻžāϰāĻŋ ⧍ā§Ļā§¨ā§Š-āĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ IMF-āĻāϰ āϏāĻžāĻĨā§ $ā§Ē.ā§ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ bailout package āύāĻŋāϤ⧠āĻŦāĻžāϧā§āϝ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻāϰ āϏāĻžāĻĨā§ āĻāĻ ā§āϰ āĻļāϰā§āϤ: subsidy reform, exchange rate flexibility, banking transparency, NPL classification reformāĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻāĻŋ āĻļāϰā§āϤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ boom-phase-āĻāϰ āĻāĻžāĻ āĻžāĻŽā§āĻāϤ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻž āϏāϰāĻžāϏāϰāĻŋ āϏā§āĻĒāϰā§āĻļ āĻāϰāĻā§āĨ¤ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāĻžā§ IMF āĻāĻāĻĒā§āϰāĻāĻžāϰ āĻŦāϞāĻā§: "āϝāĻž āϝāĻž āĻā§āϤāϰ⧠āĻĒāĻāĻž āĻāĻŋāϞ, āϏāĻŦ āĻ āĻŋāĻ āĻāϰā§āĨ¤"
⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍-āĻāϰ āĻāĻĄāĻŧ āĻā§āϤāϰā§āϰ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāϤāĻžāϰ āĻĻā§āĻŦāĻŋāϤā§āϝāĻŧ āϏā§āϤāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāĻžāĻļ āĻāϰāϞ -- āĻŽā§āĻĻā§āϰāĻž āĻ āϰāĻŋāĻāĻžāϰā§āĻāĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāϰ āĻā§āϝāĻŧā§āĻ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āĻāĻĄāĻŧ āĻāĻŋāϞ āĻāϏāĻā§āĨ¤ āϝā§āĻāĻž āĻļā§āϧ⧠āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āύāϝāĻŧ, āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻāĻāĨ¤ āϏā§āĻāĻžāĻ āĻāĻŋāϞ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ē-āĻāϰ āĻā§āϞāĻžāĻāĨ¤
āϤā§āϤā§āϝāĻŧ āĻāĻĄāĻŧ -- āĻā§āϞāĻžāĻ āĻ āĻā§āϝā§āϤā§āĻĨāĻžāύ āĻ āϞā§āĻāĻžāύ⧠NPL-āĻāϰ āĻāύā§āĻŽā§āĻāύ (⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ē)
āĻā§āϞāĻžāĻ-āĻāĻāϏā§āĻ ā§¨ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ē-āĻāϰ āĻāĻāύāĻž āĻļā§āϧ⧠āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāϰā§āϤāύ āύāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻŋāϞ ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āĻāĻŽā§ āĻĨāĻžāĻāĻž āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻ āϏāĻžāĻŽāĻžāĻāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻžāĻĒā§āϰ āĻŦāĻŋāϏā§āĻĢā§āϰāĻŖāĨ¤ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻāĻ āĻŦāĻŋāϏā§āĻĢā§āϰāĻŖāĻ āĻā§āϤāϰā§āϰ āϏāĻŦ āĻĒāĻāύāĻā§ āĻĻā§āĻļā§āϝāĻŽāĻžāύ āĻāϰā§āĻā§āĨ¤
āĻā§āϞāĻžāĻ āĻ āĻā§āϝā§āϤā§āĻĨāĻžāύ -- āĻā§āύ āĻāĻāĻž āĻāĻŋāϞ āĻ āύāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāϰā§āϝ
Inflation, āĻŦā§āĻāĻžāϰāϤā§āĻŦ, real wage āĻĒāϤāύ, āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻĻāĻŽāύ, āĻā§āĻāĻž āĻāύā§āĻĻā§āϞāύ -- āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ āĻāĻāϏāĻžāĻĨā§ āĻāϏ⧠āĻļāĻŋāĻā§āώāĻžāϰā§āĻĨā§ āĻāύā§āĻĻā§āϞāύāĻā§ āĻāĻŖāĻ āĻā§āϝā§āϤā§āĻĨāĻžāύ⧠āϰā§āĻĒāĻžāύā§āϤāϰ āĻāϰāϞāĨ¤ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻā§āώāϤāĻŋ: curfew āĻ āĻŦāύā§āϧ⧠$ā§§.⧍+ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ āϤāĻžā§āĻā§āώāĻŖāĻŋāĻ āĻā§āώāϤāĻŋāĨ¤ āĻāĻžāϰāĻāĻžāύāĻž āĻŦāύā§āϧ, RMG order cancel, āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻāĻžāϰ⧠wait-and-see-āϤā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻ āϤāĻžā§āĻā§āώāĻŖāĻŋāĻ āĻā§āώāϤāĻŋ āĻāĻŋāϞ trivial -- āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāĻžāĻŦ āĻāϏā§āĻā§ āĻĒāϰā§āĨ¤
Hidden NPL-āĻāϰ āĻāύā§āĻŽā§āĻāύ -- 'Under the carpet' Era-āϰ āĻļā§āώ
āĻ āĻāϏā§āĻ ā§¨ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ē-āĻāϰ āĻĒāϰ Interim Government Bangladesh Bank-āĻāϰ āύā§āϤā§āϤā§āĻŦā§ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāϰā§āϤāύ āĻāύāϞāĨ¤ āύāϤā§āύ Governor Ahsan H Mansur āϏā§āĻŦāĻā§āĻāϤāĻžāϰ āύā§āϤāĻŋ āĻā§āϰāĻšāĻŖ āĻāϰāϞā§āύāĨ¤ Basel III-āϰ loan classification standard āĻĒā§āϰāϝāĻŧā§āĻ āĻļā§āϰ⧠āĻšāϞā§āĨ¤
Bangladesh Bank-āĻāϰ āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻŦāĻžāĻšā§ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻāĻžāϞāĻ Arif Hossain Khan āϏā§āĻŦā§āĻāĻžāϰ āĻāϰā§āĻā§āύ (āĻŦāĻŋāĻāĻŋāύā§āύ āϏāĻāĻŦāĻžāĻĻāĻŽāĻžāϧā§āϝāĻŽā§): "āĻ āϤā§āϤ⧠āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāĻā§āϞ⧠NPL 'under the carpet' āϰāĻžāĻāϤā§āĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāĻžāĻŦāĻļāĻžāϞ⧠clients-āĻĻā§āϰ irregular loans NPL āĻšāĻŋāϏā§āĻŦā§ record āĻšāϤ⧠āύāĻžāĨ¤"
āϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧ | Reported NPL Ratio | āĻŽāύā§āϤāĻŦā§āϝ |
⧍ā§Ļā§¨ā§Š āĻā§āύ | ~ā§§ā§Ļ% | āĻ āĻĢāĻŋāϏāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāϞ |
⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ē āĻā§āύ | ~⧧⧍.⧍% | āύāϤā§āύ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰ āĻāϏāĻžāϰ āĻāĻā§ |
⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ē āĻĄāĻŋāϏā§āĻŽā§āĻŦāϰ | ~⧍ā§Ļ.⧍% | Basel III adoption āĻļā§āϰ⧠|
⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ āĻŽāĻžāϰā§āĻ | ~⧍ā§Ē.ā§Ŧ% | S Alam, Beximco-āϰ default āĻĒā§āϰāĻāĻžāĻļ |
⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ āĻā§āύ | ~ā§Šā§Ē.ā§Ŧ% | system-wide āϏāĻāĻāĻ |
⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ āϏā§āĻĒā§āĻā§āĻŽā§āĻŦāϰ | ~ā§Šā§Ģ.ā§ā§Š% | ⧍ā§Ģ āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āϏāϰā§āĻŦā§āĻā§āĻ |
āĻāĻ āĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋ ā§§ā§Ē āĻŽāĻžāϏ⧠⧧ā§Ļ% āĻĨā§āĻā§ ā§Šā§Ģ.ā§ā§Š% -- āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ āύāϝāĻŧ, accounting reality-āϰ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāϰā§āϤāύāĨ¤ NPL āϏāĻŦ āϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧāĻ āĻāϤ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻāĻŋāϞ, āĻļā§āϧ⧠āϞā§āĻāĻžāύ⧠āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤ āύāϤā§āύ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰ āĻĸāĻžāĻāύāĻž āϏāϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§, āĻĒāĻāύ āĻĻā§āĻāĻž āĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤
S Alam āĻ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϝ āĻā§āώā§āĻ ā§āϰ Exposure
Interim Government-āĻāϰ audit-āĻ āϝāĻž āĻŦā§āϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āĻāϏā§āĻā§: S Alam Group āĻŦāĻŋāĻāĻŋāύā§āύ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ āĻĨā§āĻā§ BDT ā§§,ā§Ģā§Ļ,ā§Ļā§Ļā§Ļ+ āĻā§āĻāĻŋ āĻāĻžāĻāĻž (āĻāύā§āĻŽāĻžāύāĻŋāĻ $⧧⧍+ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ) āύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋāϰāĻāĻžāĻāĻ defaultāĨ¤ Beximco Group, Orion, Summit Group -- āϏāĻŦāĻžāϰ āύāĻžāĻŽ āĻāϏā§āĻā§āĨ¤ Interim Government āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻāĻāĻŋ Islamic Bank-āĻā§ force merge āĻāϰ⧠Sammilito Islami Bank PLC āĻāĻ āύ āĻāϰā§āĻā§ -- āĻāĻ āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻāĻāĻŋāϤā§āĻ S Alam-āĻāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāĻžāĻŦ āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤
Trump Tariff (⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ) -- āĻāϤā§āϰā§āĻĨ āĻāĻĄāĻŧ
āĻāĻžāύā§āϝāĻŧāĻžāϰāĻŋ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ-āĻ Donald Trump āĻĻā§āĻŦāĻŋāϤā§āϝāĻŧāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻā§āώāĻŽāϤāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻāϞā§āύāĨ¤ āĻāĻĒā§āϰāĻŋāϞ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ-āĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻĒāĻŖā§āĻ¯ā§ ā§Šā§Ģ-ā§Šā§% reciprocal tariff āĻā§āώāĻŖāĻžāĨ¤ Atlantic Council-āĻāϰ āϤāĻĨā§āϝ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§ āĻā§āϞāĻžāĻ ā§¨ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ-āĻ āĻāϞā§āĻāύāĻžāϰ āĻĒāϰ tariff ⧍ā§Ļ%-āĻ namanā§ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ -- āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āϤāύāĻžāĻŽā§āϰ āϏāĻŽāĻžāύāĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠RMG-āϰ margin-āĻ āĻāĻ ā§¨ā§Ļ%-āĻ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļāĻžāϞ āϧāĻžāĻā§āĻāĻžāĨ¤
āĻāĻžāϰāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻĄāĻŧ (COVID, Russia-Ukraine, July uprising, Trump tariff) āĻŽāĻŋāϞ⧠āϝāĻž āϤā§āϰāĻŋ āĻāϰā§āĻā§: FY26-āĻ GDP ā§Š.⧝%, NPL ā§Šā§Ģ.ā§ā§Š%, āĻŦā§āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻ ā§Ģ āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύāĨ¤ āĻāĻ āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāύāĻ trough phaseāĨ¤ āύāĻŋāĻā§ āϝāĻžāĻāϝāĻŧāĻžāϰ āĻāϰ āĻāĻžāϝāĻŧāĻāĻž āύā§āĻ āĻŦāϞāϞā§āĻ āĻāϞā§āĨ¤
āĻāĻāύ āĻā§āĻĨāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻāĻāĻŋ -- Trough Phase-āĻāϰ āϏāĻžāϤ āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻžāϰ Picture
Trough phase āĻļā§āϧ⧠āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āϤāĻžāϤā§āϤā§āĻŦāĻŋāĻ āϧāĻžāϰāĻŖāĻž āύāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻŋ āϏāĻžāϤ āĻāϞāĻžāĻĻāĻž āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻā§ āĻāĻāĻžāϤ āĻāϰ⧠-- āĻāĻžāϤā§āϝāĻŧ āĻā§āĻĒāĻžāĻĻāύ, āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻžāϤ, āĻŦāĻšāĻŋāĻāϏā§āĻĨ āĻāĻžāϰāϏāĻžāĻŽā§āϝ, āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨ āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāĻĒāύāĻž, āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋ, āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻ, āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻŽā§āϞā§āϝāϏā§āϤāϰāĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻāĻŋ āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻŦāϰā§āϤāĻŽāĻžāύ āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāύ āĻĄā§āĻāĻž āĻĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āĻĻā§āĻāĻžāϤ⧠āĻšāĻŦā§ -- āϤāĻŦā§āĻ trough-āĻāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ āĻāĻŦāĻŋ āĻĢā§āĻā§ āĻāĻ āĻŦā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻ section-āĻ āĻāĻā§ āĻāĻā§ āϏāĻŦ āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻž āĻĒāϰā§āĻā§āώāĻž āĻāϰāĻŦāĨ¤
āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻž ā§§: āĻāĻžāϤā§āϝāĻŧ āĻā§āĻĒāĻžāĻĻāύ -- Sector āĻāĻŋāϤā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻžāĻāύ
World Bank-āĻāϰ āĻāĻĒā§āϰāĻŋāϞ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ŧ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻŦā§āĻĻāύ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§, FY26-āĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ real GDP āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋ ā§Š.⧝% projection -- COVID-āĻĒāϰāĻŦāϰā§āϤ⧠āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύāĨ¤ PRI-āϰ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāĻļā§āώ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āϞā§āώāĻŖā§ FY26-āĻāϰ Q2-āĻ growth āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰ ā§Š%āĨ¤ āĻāĻ āϏāĻžāĻŽāĻā§āϰāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻŋāϤā§āϰ sector-āĻāĻŋāϤā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻžāĻāϞ⧠āĻāϰāĻ āϏā§āĻĒāώā§āĻ āĻšāϝāĻŧāĨ¤
Sector | GDP-āϤ⧠āĻ āĻāĻļ (%) | FY24 Growth | FY26 Growth (āĻāύā§āĻŽāĻžāύāĻŋāĻ) | āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻž |
āĻā§āώāĻŋ (Agriculture) | ~ā§§ā§§% | ā§Š.ā§Š% | ⧍.ā§Ŧ% | Slow -- āĻāϞāĻŦāĻžāϝāĻŧā§ āĻ āϏāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻĻāĻžāĻŽ |
āĻļāĻŋāϞā§āĻĒ (Industry) | ~ā§Šā§Ē% | ā§Ŧ.ā§Ģ% | ā§Š.ā§§% | Sharp slowdown -- RMG order, energy |
āϏā§āĻŦāĻž (Services) | ~ā§Ģ⧍% | ā§Ģ.ā§Š% | ā§Ē.ā§% | Resilient āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠slowing |
āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻŽāĻžāĻŖ (Construction) | ~ā§% | ā§Ē.ā§Ž% | ā§§.⧝% | Mega project āĻļā§āώā§āϰ āĻĻāĻŋāĻā§ |
āĻŽā§āϝāĻžāύā§āĻĢā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋāĻ | ~⧍ā§Ē% | ā§Ŧ.ā§Ŧ% | ⧍.ā§Ž% | RMG āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻāϰāĻļā§āϞāϤāĻžāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāĻžāĻŦ |
āĻļāĻŋāϞā§āĻĒ āĻāĻžāϤā§āϰ slowdown āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āύāĻžāĻāĻā§āϝāĻŧ -- ā§Ŧ.ā§Ģ% āĻĨā§āĻā§ ā§Š.ā§§%āĨ¤ āĻāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻĒā§āϰā§āĻāĻžāĻ RMG-āϤ⧠Trump tariff āĻ energy āĻŦā§āϝāϝāĻŧā§āϰ āĻāĻžāĻĒāĨ¤ āϏā§āĻŦāĻž āĻāĻžāϤ āϤā§āϞāύāĻžāĻŽā§āϞāĻ resilient -- āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ remittance-āĻāϰ consumption demand āĻāϞāĻā§āĨ¤ āĻā§āώāĻŋ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻāĻĻāĻŋāύ āϧāϰ⧠structural āϏāĻŽāϏā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧ -- āĻāϞāĻŦāĻžāϝāĻŧā§ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāϰā§āϤāύ, āϏāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻĻāĻžāĻŽ, āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻā§āώāĻŋ āĻāĻŖā§ NPL āϏāĻŽāϏā§āϝāĻžāĨ¤
āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻž ⧍: āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻāĻŋāĻ āĻ āĻāϰā§āĻĨāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻžāϤ -- ICU āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻž
āϏā§āĻāĻ | Peak/Healthy Level | Trough Level (⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ-⧍ā§Ŧ) | āϤāĻĨā§āϝāϏā§āϤā§āϰ |
NPL Ratio | ~ā§§ā§Ļ% (reported) | ā§Šā§Ģ.ā§ā§Š% (āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ) | Bangladesh Bank, Sept 2025 |
State-owned bank NPL | ~⧍ā§Ļ% | ā§Ģā§Ļ%+ (Sammilito merger) | BBF Digital |
Capital Adequacy Ratio | ⧧⧍.ā§Ģ%+ (Basel) | system-wide ~ā§Ē.ā§Ģ% | BBF Digital, IMF Article IV |
Provision Shortfall | āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻļā§āύā§āϝ | BDT ā§Ģā§Ļ,ā§Ļā§Ļā§Ļ+ āĻā§āĻāĻŋ | Bangladesh Bank QFSI report |
Private Credit Growth | ā§§ā§Ģ-⧍ā§Ļ% | ā§Ŧ% (⧍ā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύ) | The Daily Star |
Banks under AQR | āĻļā§āύā§āϝ | ā§ŦāĻāĻŋ (ā§§ā§Ž+ āĻāϏāĻā§) | World Bank Country Update |
BBF Digital-āĻāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻŦā§āĻĻāύ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§, system-wide bank capital ratio ā§Ē.ā§Ģ%-āĻ āύā§āĻŽā§ āĻā§āĻā§ -- ā§§ā§Ļ% regulatory minimum-āĻāϰ āĻ āϰā§āϧā§āĻā§āϰāĻ āĻāĻŽāĨ¤ ⧧⧍āĻāĻŋāϰāĻ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ commercial lender-āĻāϰ default ratio ā§Ģā§Ļ%-āĻāϰ āĻāĻĒāϰā§āĨ¤ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāĻžā§ āĻāĻ ā§§ā§¨ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ āĻā§āĻāύāĻŋāĻā§āϝāĻžāϞāĻŋ āĻĻā§āĻāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻž -- āĻļā§āϧ⧠government support-āĻ āĻāĻŋāĻā§ āĻāĻā§āĨ¤
āĻāϰ āϏāϰāĻžāϏāϰāĻŋ āĻĒā§āϰāĻāĻžāĻŦ real economy-āϤā§: āϝāĻāύ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻā§āϰ āĻŽā§āϞāϧāύ āĻāĻŽ, āϤāĻžāϰāĻž āύāϤā§āύ āĻāĻŖ āĻĻāĻŋāϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϰ⧠āύāĻžāĨ¤ Private credit growth ā§Ŧ% āĻŽāĻžāύ⧠āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāϰ āϰāĻā§āϤ āϏāĻā§āĻāĻžāϞāύ āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻĨā§āĻŽā§ āĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻžāϞ⧠āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāϏāĻžāϝāĻŧā§ -- āϝāĻžāĻĻā§āϰ āĻā§āύ⧠āĻĻā§āώ āύā§āĻ -- āϤāĻžāϰāĻžāĻ working capital āĻĒāĻžāĻā§āĻā§āύ āύāĻžāĨ¤
āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻž ā§Š: āĻŦāĻšāĻŋāĻāϏā§āĻĨ āĻāĻžāϰāϏāĻžāĻŽā§āϝ -- Reserve, Exchange Rate, Current Account
āϏā§āĻāĻ | Peak (⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧧-⧍⧍) | Bottom (⧍ā§Ļā§¨ā§Š) | Current (⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ-⧍ā§Ŧ) | āĻŽā§āϞā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧāύ |
Foreign Reserves | $ā§Ēā§Ž āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | $ā§§ā§Ž.ā§Ŧ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | $⧍ā§Ŧ.ā§Ē āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | Recovery, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠peak āĻĨā§āĻā§ ā§Ēā§Ģ% āύāĻŋāĻā§ |
Months of Imports Covered | ~ā§ āĻŽāĻžāϏ | ~ā§Š āĻŽāĻžāϏ (warning) | ~ā§Ģ āĻŽāĻžāϏ | Adequate āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠buffer thin |
Taka/USD | ~ā§Žā§Ģ | ~ā§§ā§§ā§Ļ | ~⧧⧍⧍ (crawling peg) | Stabilize, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠ā§Ēā§Ļ%+ overall depreciation |
Current Account | Deficit (~$ā§§ā§ŽB) | Deficit (~$ā§ŦB) | Surplus (~$ā§§B) | Improvement -- import compression-āĻ |
External Debt/GDP | ~ā§§ā§% | ~⧍⧍% | ~⧍ā§Ģ%+ | āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤāĻžāĻāύāĻ āĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋ |
FY26 Foreign Debt Servicing | Manageable | āĻāĻžāĻĒā§ | $ā§Ē+ āĻŦāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ/āĻŦāĻāϰ | Mega project repayment āĻļā§āϰ⧠|
āĻāĻāĻžāύ⧠āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻā§āϰā§āϤā§āĻŦāĻĒā§āϰā§āĻŖ nuance: Current account surplus āĻāĻžāϞ⧠āĻāĻŦāϰ āĻŽāύ⧠āĻšāϞā§āĻ āĻāϏāϞ⧠āĻāĻāĻŋ import compression-āĻāϰ āĻĢāϞāĨ¤ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ āĻŽāĻžāύā§āώ āĻāĻŽ āĻāĻŋāύāĻā§, āĻāĻžāϰāĻāĻžāύāĻž āĻāĻŽ āĻāĻžāĻāĻāĻžāĻŽāĻžāϞ āĻāύāĻā§, energy āĻāĻŽ import āĻšāĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāĻžā§ surplus āĻāϏāĻā§ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āϏāĻāĻā§āĻāύ āĻĨā§āĻā§ -- āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋ āĻĨā§āĻā§ āύāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻžāĻā§ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻŋāĻĻāϰāĻž āĻŦāϞā§āύ 'recessionary surplusāĨ¤'
āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻž ā§Ē: āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨ āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāĻĒāύāĻž -- Fiscal Squeeze
āϏā§āĻāĻ | Healthy Range | āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻž (FY26) | āϤāĻĨā§āϝāϏā§āϤā§āϰ |
Tax-to-GDP | ā§§ā§Ģ-⧍ā§Ļ% | ā§Ŧ.ā§Ž% | CPD |
Fiscal Deficit/GDP | ā§Š-ā§Ē% | ~ā§Ē.ā§Ŧ% | Bangladesh Budget |
Government Debt/GDP | ā§Ēā§Ļ-ā§Ŧā§Ļ% (manageable) | ~ā§Šā§¯% | Manageable, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻā§ |
Subsidy Burden | GDP-āϰ ā§§-⧍% | ~ā§Š%+ (energy, fertilizer) | MoF data |
Interest Payment/Revenue | <⧍ā§Ļ% | ~ā§Šā§Ģ%+ | āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤāĻžāĻāύāĻ |
Bank Loan Recapitalization | āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻļā§āύā§āϝ | BDT ā§Šā§Ļ,ā§Ļā§Ļā§Ļ+ āĻā§āĻāĻŋ | Public expense |
Tax-to-GDP ā§Ŧ.ā§Ž% āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻāĻā§āϰ fiscal weakness -- āĻĻāĻā§āώāĻŋāĻŖ āĻāĻļāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāϝāĻŧ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύāĨ¤ Revenue-āĻāϰ ā§Šā§Ģ%+ āĻāĻāύ interest payment-āĻ āϝāĻžāĻā§āĻā§ -- āĻŽāĻžāύ⧠āĻļāĻŋāĻā§āώāĻž, āϏā§āĻŦāĻžāϏā§āĻĨā§āϝ, āĻ āĻŦāĻāĻžāĻ āĻžāĻŽā§āϝāĻŧ āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āϰ āĻāύā§āϝ fiscal space āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āύā§āĻāĨ¤
āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāĻāĻ signal: FY26-āĻāϰ Q1-āĻ revenue collection ⧍ā§Ļ% āĻŦā§āĻĄāĻŧā§āĻā§ NBR āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻĒāϰ -- āĻāĻāĻŋ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰ-āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāϰā§āϤāύā§āϰ āĻĒāϰā§āϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻĨāĻŽ āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ structural improvementāĨ¤
āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻž ā§Ģ: āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋ -- Real Wage, Poverty, Employment
GDP, NPL, reserves -- āĻāϏāĻŦ āϏāĻāĻā§āϝāĻž āĻĒāϤā§āϰāĻŋāĻāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻāϏā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠trough phase āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤāĻĒāĻā§āώ⧠āĻ āύā§āĻā§āϤ āĻšāϝāĻŧ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāϰā§āϰ āϰāĻžāύā§āύāĻžāĻāϰā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻ āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻāĻŋāϤā§āϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻā§āϰā§āϤāϰāĨ¤
āϏā§āĻāĻ | ⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍ (Pre-bust) | āĻŦāϰā§āϤāĻŽāĻžāύ (⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ-⧍ā§Ŧ) | āĻ āϰā§āĻĨ |
Inflation Headline | ~ā§Ŧ% | ā§Ž.⧍⧝% (Nov 2025) | Peak āĻĒā§āϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āĻāĻŽāĻā§ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻāύ⧠āĻāĻā§āĻ |
Inflation Food | ~ā§Ŧ-ā§% | ~ā§§ā§Ļ%+ | āĻŽāϧā§āϝāĻŦāĻŋāϤā§āϤ-āύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύāĻŦāĻŋāϤā§āϤā§āϰ āĻāĻžāĻā§ āĻ āϏāĻšāύā§āϝāĻŧ |
Real Wage Growth | Positive | Negative āĻāĻžāύāĻž ⧍ā§Ŧ āĻŽāĻžāϏ | āĻā§āϰāϝāĻŧāĻā§āώāĻŽāϤāĻž āĻā§āώāϝāĻŧ |
Poverty Rate (PPRC) | ~ā§§ā§Ž% | ~ā§¨ā§Ž% | ⧝.ā§Š āĻĒāϝāĻŧā§āύā§āĻ āϞāĻžāĻĢ |
āύāϤā§āύ āĻŦā§āĻāĻžāϰ (PPRC) | ~ā§Ļ | ~ā§Š āĻŽāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ | Job market trough-āĻ |
Underemployment | ~ā§§ā§Ģ% | ~⧍⧍%+ | āĻāĻžāĻā§ āĻāĻā§ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠skill/āĻŦā§āϤāύ āĻŽā§āϞā§āύāĻŋ |
PPRC-āϰ āϏāĻžāĻŽā§āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻ āĻāϰāĻŋāĻĒ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§, āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ poverty rate ā§§ā§Ž% āĻĨā§āĻā§ ā§¨ā§Ž%-āĻ āϞāĻžāĻĢāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ -- ⧝.ā§Š āĻĒāϝāĻŧā§āύā§āĻ āĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋāĨ¤ āĻāϰ āĻŽāĻžāύ⧠āĻāϤ ā§§ā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰ⧠āĻĻāĻžāϰāĻŋāĻĻā§āϰā§āϝāĻŽā§āĻā§āϤāĻŋāϰ āϝāϤ āĻ āϰā§āĻāύ āĻāĻŋāϞ, āϤāĻžāϰ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āĻ āĻāĻļ āĻāĻ trough phase-āĻ āĻšāĻžāϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤ ā§Š āĻŽāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ āύāϤā§āύ āĻŦā§āĻāĻžāϰ āϝā§āĻā§āϤ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤
The Business Standard-āĻāϰ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āϞā§āώāĻŖ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§, āĻŽāĻā§āϰāĻŋ āĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋāϰ āĻšāĻžāϰ āĻāĻžāύāĻž ⧍ā§Ŧ āĻŽāĻžāϏ āϧāϰ⧠inflation-āĻāϰ āύāĻŋāĻā§ -- āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāĻžā§ āĻāĻžāĻāĻā§ āĻŦā§āϤāύ āϏāĻžāĻŽāĻžāύā§āϝ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāϞā§āĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ⧠āĻā§āϰāϝāĻŧāĻā§āώāĻŽāϤāĻž āĻāĻŽāĻā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻŋ āϏāĻžāĻŽāĻžāĻāĻŋāĻ āĻ āϏāύā§āϤā§āώā§āϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āĻāĻžāϞāĻŋāĻāĻžāĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋāĨ¤
āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻž ā§Ŧ: āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻ āĻāĻŋāϤā§āϰ -- Private, FDI, Stock Market
āϏā§āĻāĻ | Peak (⧍ā§Ļā§§ā§Ž-⧍⧍) | Trough (⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ-⧍ā§Ŧ) | āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻž |
Private Investment/GDP | ~⧍ā§Ē% | ⧍⧍.ā§Ēā§Ž% | ā§Ģ āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύ (CPD) |
FDI/GDP | ~ā§§.ā§% (⧍ā§Ļā§§ā§Š peak) | ~ā§Ļ.ā§Ģ% | āϤā§āϞāύā§āϝāĻŧ āĻĻā§āĻļāĻā§āϞā§āϰ āĻŽāϧā§āϝ⧠āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύ (IFC) |
FDI Growth (FY24-25) | Negative | +⧍ā§Ļ% | āĻāϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāĻāĻ -- āϏāĻžāĻŽāĻžāύā§āϝ āĻāĻļāĻž |
DSE Market Cap/GDP | ~ā§§ā§Ģ% | ~ā§Ž% | Equity market āĻ āϰā§āϧā§āĻā§ |
Trade in Stocks | Active | Half-dead | Regular volume āĻāĻŽā§āĻā§ ā§Ŧā§Ļ%+ |
IPO Frequency | āĻŽāĻžāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ | āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻļā§āύā§āϝ | āĻā§āĻŽā§āĻĒāĻžāύāĻŋāĻā§āϞ⧠listing-āĻ āĻāĻā§āϰāĻš āĻšāĻžāϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ |
Private investment ā§Ģ āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύ⧠-- āĻāĻāĻžāĻ trough-āĻāϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ indicatorāĨ¤ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ āĻā§āύ⧠āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāϰ āĻāĻŦāĻŋāώā§āϝ⧠āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻāϰ āĻāϰ⧠āĻāĻāĻā§āϰ āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āϰ āĻāĻĒāϰāĨ¤ āĻāĻ āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻ āύāĻž āĻšāϞ⧠āĻāĻžāϞ āĻāϰā§āĻŽāϏāĻāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāύ āĻšāĻŦā§ āύāĻž, āĻĒāϰāĻļā§ āϰāĻĒā§āϤāĻžāύāĻŋ āĻāϝāĻŧ āĻšāĻŦā§ āύāĻžāĨ¤ FY24-25-āĻ FDI ⧍ā§Ļ% āĻŦā§āĻĄāĻŧā§āĻā§ -- āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠base āĻāϤāĻ āĻā§āĻ āϝ⧠āĻāĻ āĻŦā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻŋāϰ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŽāĻžāĻŖ āϏāĻāĻā§āϝāĻžāĻāϤāĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āϝāĻĨā§āώā§āĻ āύāϝāĻŧāĨ¤
āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻž ā§: āĻŽā§āϞā§āϝāϏā§āϤāϰ āĻ āĻŽā§āĻĻā§āϰāĻž āϏāϰāĻŦāϰāĻžāĻš
āϏā§āĻāĻ | Peak | āĻŦāϰā§āϤāĻŽāĻžāύ | āĻ āϰā§āĻĨ |
Headline CPI | ā§§ā§§.ā§Šā§Ž% (Nov 2024) | ā§Ž.⧍⧝% (Nov 2025) | Peak āĻĒā§āϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ -- ā§Š+ āĻĒāϝāĻŧā§āύā§āĻ āĻšā§āϰāĻžāϏ |
Food CPI | ~ā§§ā§Ē% | ~ā§§ā§Ļ%+ | āĻāĻāύ⧠āĻāĻā§āĻ |
Non-food CPI | ~⧝% | ~ā§% | āϧā§āϰ⧠āĻāĻŽāĻā§ |
Policy Rate | ā§Ŧ-ā§% | ā§§ā§Ļ% | Tight monetary stance |
Real Policy Rate | Negative (5 years) | Positive (Jan 2025+) | āĻĒā§āϰāĻĨāĻŽ āĻāϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāĻāĻ real return |
Money Supply (M2) Growth | ā§§ā§Ģ-ā§§ā§Ž% | ~ā§% | Rapid contraction |
āĻāĻ āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āϏā§āĻĒāώā§āĻ āĻāϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāĻāĻ āϏāĻāĻā§āϤ āĻāĻā§āĨ¤ Real policy rate āĻāϤ ā§Ģ āĻŦāĻāϰ⧠āĻĒā§āϰāĻĨāĻŽāĻŦāĻžāϰ positive āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ -- āĻāĻāĻŋ savings-āĻā§ āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻāĻāϰā§āώāĻŖā§āϝāĻŧ āĻāϰāĻā§āĨ¤ āϤāĻŦā§ monetary tightness-āĻāϰ āϏāϰāĻžāϏāϰāĻŋ āĻĢāϞ private credit growth-āĻāϰ āĻĒāϤāύāĨ¤
āĻĻāĻā§āώāĻŋāĻŖ āĻāĻļāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻāĻŽāĻžāĻĻā§āϰ āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāύ
āϏā§āĻāĻ | āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ | āĻāĻžāϰāϤ | āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āϤāύāĻžāĻŽ | āĻļā§āϰā§āϞāĻā§āĻāĻž | āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻŋāϏā§āϤāĻžāύ |
GDP Growth (⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ŧ) | ā§Š.⧝% | ā§Ŧ.ā§Ģ% | ā§Ŧ.ā§Ļ% | ā§Š.ā§Ģ% | ā§Š.ā§Ļ% |
NPL Ratio | ā§Šā§Ģ.ā§% | ~ā§Š.ā§Ļ% | ~ā§Š.ā§Ē% | ⧧⧍.ā§Ŧ% | ā§.ā§Ŧ% |
Tax-GDP | ā§Ŧ.ā§Ž% | ā§§ā§§% | ā§§ā§Ģ% | ā§§ā§Š% | ā§§ā§Ļ% |
FDI/GDP | ā§Ļ.ā§Ģ% | ~ā§§.ā§% | ~ā§Ē.ā§Ģ% | ~ā§§.ā§Ļ% | ~ā§Ļ.ā§Ŧ% |
Inflation | ā§Ž.ā§Š% | ~ā§Ē% | ~ā§Š.ā§Ģ% | ~ā§Š% | ~ā§Ē% |
External Debt/GDP | ~⧍ā§Ģ% | ~⧧⧝% | ~ā§Šā§Ģ% | ~ā§Ŧā§Ļ%+ | ~ā§Ēā§Ļ%+ |
āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āώ āĻĻā§āϰāώā§āĻāĻŦā§āϝ: āϤāĻĨā§āϝāϏā§āϤā§āϰ: World Bank, ADB, IMF, āĻāĻŦāĻ āϏāĻāĻļā§āϞāĻŋāώā§āĻ āĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻā§āύā§āĻĻā§āϰā§āϝāĻŧ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻā§āϰ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ-⧍ā§Ŧ projectionsāĨ¤ āϏāĻāĻā§āϝāĻž āĻāύā§āĻŽāĻžāύāĻŋāĻāĨ¤
āϞāĻā§āώā§āϝ āĻāϰā§āύ: āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ NPL ratio (ā§Šā§Ģ.ā§%) āĻāĻ āĻ āĻā§āĻāϞā§āϰ āϏāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻ āύā§āĻ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ -- āĻļā§āϰā§āϞāĻā§āĻāĻžāϰ āϝā§āĻāĻž bankrupt declare āĻāϰā§āĻāĻŋāϞ, āϤāĻžāĻĻā§āϰāĻ ā§§ā§¨.ā§Ŧ%āĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻžāĻ āĻā§āύ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļāĻā§ āĻāĻāύ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āĻŦā§āϰ āϏāϰā§āĻŦā§āĻā§āĻ NPL-āϝā§āĻā§āϤ āĻĻā§āĻļ āĻŦāϞāĻž āĻšāĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤
āĻā§āύ āĻāĻāĻžāĻ Trough -- āϤāĻŋāύāĻāĻŋ Technical Signal
āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻŋāĻĻāϰāĻž trough āĻāĻŋāĻšā§āύāĻŋāϤ āĻāϰāϤ⧠āϤāĻŋāύāĻāĻŋ classical signal āĻŦā§āϝāĻŦāĻšāĻžāϰ āĻāϰā§āύāĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻā§āώā§āϤā§āϰ⧠āϤāĻŋāύāĻāĻŋāĻ -- āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āĻšāϞā§āĻ -- āĻĻā§āĻāĻž āϝāĻžāĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤
Signal | Theoretical Definition | āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻž |
Signal 1: GDP Floor | GDP minimum-āĻ āĻĒā§āĻāĻāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠negative āĻšāϝāĻŧ āύāĻž | ā§Š.⧝% -- positive āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠decade low |
Signal 2: Leading Indicators Turn | Inflation, reserves, business confidence āĻā§āϰ⧠| Inflation āĻāĻŽāĻā§, reserves āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻā§ -- āϏāĻāĻā§āϤ āĻšāĻžāĻāĻŋāϰ |
Signal 3: Markets Price-in Recovery | Stock market, bond yield āĻāĻā§ āĻĨā§āĻā§āĻ recovery āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻĻā§āĻļ āĻāϰ⧠| DSE āĻāĻāύ⧠dead -- āĻāĻ signal āĻ āύā§āĻĒāϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤ |
āϤā§āϤā§āϝāĻŧ signal-āĻāϰ āĻ āύā§āĻĒāϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤāĻŋ āĻā§āϰā§āϤā§āĻŦāĻĒā§āϰā§āĻŖ -- āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ āĻāĻāύ⧠recovery-āϤ⧠āĻāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāĻļā§āϞ āύāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāĻžā§ āĻāĻŽāϰāĻž trough-āĻ āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻŦāĻā§, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠uplift āĻāĻāύ⧠āĻļā§āϰ⧠āĻšāϝāĻŧāύāĻŋāĨ¤ PRI-āϰ economist āĻāĻ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖā§āĻ āĻŦāϞā§āĻā§āύ: "āĻāĻ āĻŽā§āĻšā§āϰā§āϤ⧠reform āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻĒāĻŋāĻā§ āĻšāĻāĻž āĻšāĻŦā§ economically suicidal decisionāĨ¤"
Trough Phase-āĻāϰ āĻŽāύāϏā§āϤāϤā§āϤā§āĻŦ -- āĻā§āύ āĻŽāĻžāύā§āώ āĻā§āĻŦā§āĻā§ 'āĻŦāĻŋāĻĒāĻĻ āĻā§āĻā§āĻā§'?
Trough phase-āĻāϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻŋāĻĒāĻā§āĻāύāĻ āĻĻāĻŋāĻ -- āĻĒāϤāύ āĻĨā§āĻŽā§āĻā§, āϤāĻžāĻ āĻŽāĻžāύā§āώ āĻāĻžāĻŦā§ 'āĻŦāĻŋāĻĒāĻĻ āĻā§āĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤' āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰ āĻŦāϞ⧠'recovery āĻšāĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤' āĻŽāĻŋāĻĄāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻž āĻāϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāĻāĻ āϏāĻāĻā§āϝāĻž hi-light āĻāϰā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻāĻžāĻ āĻšāϞ⧠critical āĻŽā§āĻšā§āϰā§āϤ āϝā§āĻāĻžāύ⧠āĻā§āϞ āϏāĻŋāĻĻā§āϧāĻžāύā§āϤ āĻĒāϰāĻŦāϰā§āϤ⧠⧧ā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āĻāĻžāĻā§āϝ āύāĻŋāϰā§āϧāĻžāϰāĻŖ āĻāϰā§āĨ¤
ICG (International Crisis Group)-āĻāϰ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ē āϏāĻžāϞā§āϰ āϰāĻŋāĻĒā§āϰā§āĻ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§, āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ 'āĻļā§āϰā§āϞāĻā§āĻāĻž-style collapse' āĻāĻĄāĻŧāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠'long fragile transition' āĻļā§āϰ⧠āĻāϰā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻ 'long fragile transition'-āĻ trough phase-āĻāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻžāύ āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻĻā§āĻ āĻĻāĻŋāĻā§ āϝāĻžāĻāϝāĻŧāĻž āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧ -- āĻĻā§āϰā§āϤ recovery (Korea pattern) āĻ āĻĨāĻŦāĻž long stagnation (Brazil pattern)āĨ¤
āϏāĻžāϤ āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰāĻžāϰ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āϞā§āώāĻŖ āĻļā§āώāĨ¤ āĻāĻ trough āĻāϤāĻāĻž āĻāĻā§āϰ āϏā§āĻāĻž āĻŦā§āĻāϞā§āύāĨ¤ āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻĻā§āĻāĻž āϝāĻžāĻ -- recovery-āϰ āϏāĻāĻā§āϤ āϝā§āĻā§āϞ⧠āĻĻā§āĻāĻž āϝāĻžāĻā§āĻā§, āϏā§āĻā§āϞ⧠āĻāϏāϞ⧠āĻāϤāĻāĻž āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤāĨ¤ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻā§āύ āĻā§āύ signal āĻāĻāύ⧠āĻ āύā§āĻĒāϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤ -- āϝā§āĻā§āϞ⧠āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻž genuine recovery āĻ āϏāĻŽā§āĻāĻŦāĨ¤
Recovery-āϰ āϏāĻāĻā§āϤ -- āĻāĻžāϰ āϏā§āϤāϰā§āϰ āĻāĻā§āϰ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āϞā§āώāĻŖ
Recovery āĻŦā§āĻāϤ⧠āĻšāϞ⧠āĻĒā§āϰāĻĨāĻŽā§ āĻŦā§āĻāϤ⧠āĻšāĻŦā§ recovery-āϰ āϧāϰāύ āĻāĻā§ āĻāĻžāϰ āϰāĻāĻŽā§āϰāĨ¤ āĻāϰ āĻĒāϰ āĻĻā§āĻāϤ⧠āĻšāĻŦā§ āϏāĻāĻā§āϤāĻā§āϞ⧠āĻā§āύ āϏā§āϤāϰ⧠āĻāĻā§ -- macro level, real economy, market sentiment, āύāĻž structural? āϏāĻŦāĻļā§āώ⧠āĻĻā§āĻāϤ⧠āĻšāĻŦā§ āϝāĻž recovery āĻšāϝāĻŧāύāĻŋ -- āϏā§āĻ āĻāĻā§āϰāϤāĻžāĻāĨ¤ āĻāĻ section-āĻ āĻāĻ āĻāĻžāϰ āϏā§āϤāϰ⧠āĻāĻŦā§āώāĻŖāĻžāĻāĻŋāϤā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āϞā§āώāĻŖ āĻāϰāĻŦāĨ¤
Recovery-āϰ āϧāϰāύ -- V, U, L, K-shaped
āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻŋāĻĻāϰāĻž post-crisis recovery āĻāĻŋāĻšā§āύāĻŋāϤ āĻāϰā§āύ āϤāĻžāϰ āĻāĻā§āϤāĻŋ āĻĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻā§āϤāĻŋ āĻāĻŋāύā§āύ āĻāϞā§āĻĒ āĻŦāϞā§āĨ¤
āĻāĻā§āϤāĻŋ | āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋāώā§āĻā§āϝ | āĻāϤāĻŋāĻšāĻžāϏāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻĻāĻžāĻšāϰāĻŖ | āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āϏāĻžāĻĨā§ āĻŽāĻŋāϞ? |
V-shaped | āĻĻā§āϰā§āϤ āĻĒāϤāύ, āĻĻā§āϰā§āϤ recovery | USA ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ļ COVID recovery | āĻŽāĻŋāϞ āĻāĻŽ -- āĻāĻžāĻ āĻžāĻŽā§āĻāϤ āϏāĻŽāϏā§āϝāĻž āĻāĻā§āϰ |
U-shaped | āϧā§āϰ āĻĒāϤāύ, āϧā§āϰ recovery, āĻāĻŋāĻā§ āϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧ bottom-āĻ | USA ⧧⧝ā§ā§¯-ā§Žā§¨ Volcker era | āϏāĻŽā§āĻāĻžāĻŦāύāĻž āĻāĻā§ āϝāĻĻāĻŋ reform āĻāϞ⧠|
L-shaped | āĻĒāϤāύ, āϤāĻžāϰāĻĒāϰ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻ stagnation | āĻāĻžāĻĒāĻžāύ Lost Decade (s) | āĻā§āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻā§ populism-āĻ āĻā§āϞ⧠|
K-shaped | āĻāĻŋāĻā§ sector āĻĢāĻŋāϰāĻā§, āĻāĻŋāĻā§ āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧāĻā§ | USA post-2008 (inequality āĻŦā§āĻĄāĻŧā§āĻā§) | āĻāĻŋāĻā§ signal āĻāĻā§ -- āĻĻāϰāĻŋāĻĻā§āϰ āϏāĻāĻā§āϝāĻž āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻā§ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠expat āϰā§āĻŽāĻŋāĻā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϏ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻā§ |
āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻā§āώā§āϤā§āϰ⧠āĻāĻāύ⧠āĻā§āύ āĻāĻā§āϤāĻŋ āϏā§āĻĒāώā§āĻ āύāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āϏāĻŋāĻĻā§āϧāĻžāύā§āϤ āĻšāĻŦā§ āĻāĻāĻžāĻŽā§ ā§¨-ā§Š āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āύā§āϤāĻŋāĻāϤ āĻĒāĻĻāĻā§āώā§āĻĒā§āĨ¤ āϤāĻŦā§ āĻŦāϰā§āϤāĻŽāĻžāύ data āĻŦāϞāĻā§ -- āĻāĻāĻŋ U-shaped āĻ āĻĨāĻŦāĻž K-shaped recovery āĻšāϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϰā§āĨ¤ L-shaped (Brazil/Japan) āĻāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāϤ⧠āĻšāϞ⧠āĻĻā§āϰā§āϤ āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāĻžāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāϝāĻŧā§āĻāύāĨ¤
Stabilization vs Recovery -- āĻĻā§āĻā§ āĻāĻ āĻāĻŋāύāĻŋāϏ āύāϝāĻŧ
āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻāĻŖāĻŽāĻžāϧā§āϝāĻŽā§ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻā§āϞ āĻŦā§āĻāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰ āĻŦāϞāĻā§ "Recovery āĻšāĻā§āĻā§" -- āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāϏāϞ⧠āϝāĻž āĻāĻāĻā§ āϤāĻž "StabilizationāĨ¤" āĻĒāĻžāϰā§āĻĨāĻā§āϝ āĻŦā§āĻāĻž āĻāϰā§āϰāĻŋāĨ¤
āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋāώā§āĻā§āϝ | Stabilization | Recovery |
āϏāĻāĻā§āĻāĻž | āĻĒāϤāύ āĻĨā§āĻŽā§āĻā§, indicator āĻāϰ āĻāĻžāϰāĻžāĻĒ āĻšāĻā§āĻā§ āύāĻž | Indicator āĻāĻā§āϰ āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻĢāĻŋāϰāĻā§ āĻŦāĻž āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āϝāĻžāĻā§āĻā§ |
āϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧāĻāĻžāϞ | āĻŽāĻžāϏ āĻĨā§āĻā§ ā§§-⧍ āĻŦāĻāϰ | ā§Š-ā§§ā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰ |
āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤāĻŋ | Defensive (rakkhonshil) | Offensive (advancing) |
āĻāύāĻāĻŖā§āϰ āĻ āύā§āĻā§āϤāĻŋ | "āϏāĻŦ āĻāĻŋāĻā§ āĻāĻā§āϰ āĻŽāϤ⧠āĻāĻžāϰāĻžāĻĒ" | "āĻāĻŽāϰāĻž āĻāĻžāϞā§āϰ āĻĻāĻŋāĻā§ āϝāĻžāĻā§āĻāĻŋ" |
āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻž | Yes -- inflation āĻāĻŽāĻā§, reserves āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻā§ | No -- private investment, NPL, real wage āĻāĻāύ⧠āύāĻŋāĻā§ |
ICG-āϰ āĻŽā§āϞā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧāύ: āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ āϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤāĻŋāĻļā§āϞ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠"long fragile transition"-āĻ āĻāĻā§āĨ¤ Stabilization-āĻ āĻāĻāĻā§ āĻĨāĻžāĻāĻž āĻŽāĻžāύ⧠recovery āĻĻā§āϰ⧠-- āϝā§āĻŽāύ āĻāϰā§āĻā§āύā§āĻāĻŋāύāĻž ⧍ā§Ļ-ā§Šā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰ stabilize āĻšāϝāĻŧ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠recover āĻšāϝāĻŧ āύāĻžāĨ¤
āϏā§āϤāϰ ā§§: Macro Signals -- āϝāĻž āĻĢāĻŋāϰāĻā§
āϏā§āĻāĻ | Bottom | Current | Recovery Quality | āĻā§āĻāϏāĻāϤāĻž |
Inflation Headline | ā§§ā§§.ā§Šā§Ž% | ā§Ž.⧍⧝% | āĻāĻžāϞ⧠-- ā§Š+ āĻĒāϝāĻŧā§āύā§āĻ āĻšā§āϰāĻžāϏ | āĻŽāĻžāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ -- supply shock āĻā§āĻā§āĻā§ |
Foreign Reserves | $ā§§ā§Ž.ā§ŦB | $⧍ā§Ŧ.ā§ĒB | āĻāĻžāϞ⧠-- $ā§.ā§ŽB āĻĢā§āϰāĻž | Remittance-āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻāϰ |
Exchange Rate | āĻ āϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϰ, depreciating | Stable (crawling peg) | āĻāĻžāϞ⧠-- volatility āĻāĻŽā§āĻā§ | āύāϤā§āύ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰā§āϰ policy-āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻāϰ |
Remittance | Fluctuating | $ā§Š.ā§§ā§B/āĻŽāĻžāϏ (Jan 2026) | āĻ āϏāĻžāϧāĻžāϰāĻŖ -- ā§ŠāϝāĻŧ āϏāϰā§āĻŦā§āĻā§āĻ | Gulf stability-āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻāϰ |
Current Account | Deficit $ā§ŦB | Surplus $ā§§B | Improvement -- āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠recessionary | Import compression-āĻ |
Macro signals āϤā§āϞāύāĻžāĻŽā§āϞāĻ āĻāĻžāϞ⧠-- āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻā§āϰā§āϤā§āĻŦāĻĒā§āϰā§āĻŖ caveat: āĻāĻ recovery āĻŽā§āϞāϤ remittance-āĻāĻžāϞāĻŋāϤ āĻāĻŦāĻ import compression-āĻāĻžāϞāĻŋāϤāĨ¤ āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāĻžā§ āĻŽāĻžāύā§āώ āĻāĻŽ āĻāϰāĻ āĻāϰāĻā§ āĻŦāϞ⧠current account āĻāĻžāϞā§, āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦāĻžāϏ⧠āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻĒāĻžāĻ āĻžāĻā§āĻā§āύ āĻŦāϞ⧠reserves āĻĢāĻŋāϰāĻā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻŋ "healthy" recovery āύāϝāĻŧ -- āĻāĻāĻŋ "forced" stabilizationāĨ¤
āϏā§āϤāϰ ⧍: Real Economy -- āϝāĻž āĻāĻāύ⧠āĻāĻā§āϰ āϏāĻŽāϏā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧ
āϏā§āĻāĻ | Pre-Crisis | Current | āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻž |
Private Credit Growth | ā§§ā§Ģ-⧍ā§Ļ% | ā§Ŧ% | ⧍ā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύ -- āĻā§āύ⧠recovery āύā§āĻ |
Private Investment/GDP | ~⧍ā§Ē% | ⧍⧍.ā§Ēā§Ž% | ā§Ģ āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāύāĻŋāĻŽā§āύ -- recovery āĻ āύā§āĻĒāϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤ |
RMG Order Book | Strong | Mixed (Trump tariff effect) | Tariff āĻāĻŽāϞā§āĻ margin āĻāĻžāĻĒā§ |
Industry Growth | ā§Ŧ.ā§Ģ% | ā§Š.ā§§% | Half -- recovery āύā§āĻ |
Manufacturing | ā§Ŧ.ā§Ŧ% | ⧍.ā§Ž% | Sharp slowdown |
Construction | ā§Ē.ā§Ž% | ā§§.⧝% | Mega project āĻļā§āώ |
Real economy-āϤ⧠recovery-āϰ āϏāĻāĻā§āϤ āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āύā§āĻ āĻŦāϞāϞā§āĻ āĻāϞā§āĨ¤ Macro stable, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠real production, real investment, real credit -- āϏāĻŦ āĻāĻāύ⧠trough-āĻāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻžāĻ "jobless recovery"-āϰ āĻāĻŋāϤā§āϤāĻŋ -- āϝā§āĻāĻžāύ⧠GDP growth āĻĻā§āĻāĻž āĻā§āϞā§āĻ āĻāϰā§āĻŽāϏāĻāϏā§āĻĨāĻžāύ āϤā§āϰāĻŋ āĻšāϝāĻŧ āύāĻžāĨ¤
āϏā§āϤāϰ ā§Š: Market Sentiment -- āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻžāϰ āĻā§ āĻŦāϞāĻā§?
āϏā§āĻāĻ | āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻž | āĻŽā§āϞā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧāύ |
DSE Index | Half-dead, low volume | Investor confidence āĻ āύā§āĻĒāϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤ |
Bond Yield Curve | Flat/distorted | Long-term outlook āĻ āύāĻŋāĻļā§āĻāĻŋāϤ |
Bank Stock Performance | Underperforming | Banking crisis ongoing |
Real Estate | Slow | Demand āĻāĻŽā§āĻā§ |
Business Confidence Survey (DCCI) | Below neutral | DCCI: contractionary policy-āϰ āĻŦāĻŋāϰā§āĻĻā§āϧ⧠|
FDI Growth (FY24-25) | +⧍ā§Ļ% | āĻāĻāĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰ positive sentiment indicator |
Market signals āĻĻā§āĻāĻŋ āĻāϞā§āĻĒ āĻŦāϞāĻā§āĨ¤ DSE, real estate, banking stock -- āϏāĻŦ āĻāĻāύ⧠āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāĨ¤ āĻāĻ āĻŦā§āϝāϤāĻŋāĻā§āϰāĻŽ āĻšāϞ⧠FDI -- āϝāĻž ⧍ā§Ļ% āĻŦā§āĻĄāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤ Al Jazeera-āϰ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻŦā§āĻĻāύ āĻāĻā§ "āĻŦāĻŋāϏā§āĻŽāϝāĻŧāĻāϰ āĻāϤāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāĻāĻ" āĻŦāϞā§āĻā§ -- āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ transition-āĻāϰ āĻŽāϧā§āϝā§āĻ āύāϤā§āύ āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻāĻžāϰ⧠āĻāϏāĻā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻŋ single most positive signalāĨ¤
āϏā§āϤāϰ ā§Ē: Structural Reform Signals -- āĻāĻŋāϤā§āϤāĻŋ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāϰā§āϤāύ
āĻāĻāĻŋ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻā§āϰā§āϤā§āĻŦāĻĒā§āϰā§āĻŖ āϏā§āϤāϰāĨ¤ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ macro stable āĻšāϞ⧠structural reform āϝāĻĻāĻŋ āύāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧ, next crisis-āĻ āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻāĻāĻ āĻāĻžāϝāĻŧāĻāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻĢāĻŋāϰ⧠āĻāϏāĻŦāĨ¤
āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāĻžāϰ āĻā§āώā§āϤā§āϰ | Action Taken | āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻž | āĻŽā§āϞā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧāύ |
NBR Reform | Customs āĻ Tax āĻ āĻāϞāĻžāĻĻāĻž agency | Q1 FY26 revenue +20% | â Real progress |
Bank Resolution Ordinance ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ | May 2025 āĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ | Sammilito Islami Bank merger | â Strong action |
Asset Quality Review (AQR) | ā§ŦāĻāĻŋ āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻā§ āĻļā§āϰā§, ā§§ā§Ž+ āĻāϏāĻā§ | āĻāϞāĻŽāĻžāύ | â Important |
Distressed Asset Management Act | Drafting | āĻāĻāύ⧠pass āĻšāϝāĻŧāύāĻŋ | â Slow |
Exchange Rate Flexibility | Crawling peg active | Stable | â Major improvement |
Bangladesh Bank Independence | Interim govt-āĻ improved | āύāϤā§āύ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰ-āĻ āĻĒāϰā§āĻā§āώāĻžāϝāĻŧ | â Uncertain |
Energy Capacity Payment Renegotiation | Discussion āĻĒāϰā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§ | āĻāĻžāϰā§āϝāĻāϰ action āύā§āĻ | â Failure |
Export Diversification | Plan āĻāĻā§ | āĻŦāĻžāϏā§āϤāĻŦāĻžāϝāĻŧāύ slow | â Failure |
LDC Graduation Preparation | Preparedness āĻ āĻĒā§āϰāϤā§āϞ | ā§Ŧ āĻŽāĻžāϏ āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻŋ | â Failure |
ā§ĢāĻāĻŋ āĻā§āώā§āϤā§āϰ⧠real progress āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ -- NBR, Bank Resolution, AQR, Exchange Rate, BB IndependenceāĨ¤ ā§ĒāĻāĻŋ āĻā§āώā§āϤā§āϰ⧠structural reform stuck āĻŦāĻž failed -- āϝāĻž āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤāĻžāϰ āĻŦāĻŋāώāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ Energy capacity payment renegotiation āύāĻž āĻšāϞ⧠fiscal squeeze āĻāϞāĻŦā§āĨ¤ Export diversification āύāĻž āĻšāϞ⧠LDC graduation-āĻ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āϧāĻžāĻā§āĻāĻžāĨ¤
Recovery-āϰ āĻĒā§āϰāϧāĻžāύ āĻāĻžāϞāĻŋāĻāĻžāĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋ -- āĻāĻžāĻĻā§āϰ āϧāύā§āϝāĻŦāĻžāĻĻ?
āĻāĻ recovery āĻāĻžāϰāĻž āĻāύā§āĻā§? āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰ? āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ? āĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻāĻžāϰā§? āĻāϤā§āϤāϰ āϤāĻžāϤā§āĻĒāϰā§āϝāĻĒā§āϰā§āĻŖāĨ¤
āĻāĻžāϞāĻŋāĻāĻžāĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋ | Contribution | āĻā§āĻāϏāĻāϤāĻž |
āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦāĻžāϏ⧠diaspora | āĻŽāĻžāϏāĻŋāĻ $ā§ŠB+ remittance, FY26-āĻ ā§ŠāϝāĻŧ āϏāϰā§āĻŦā§āĻā§āĻ | āĻŽāĻžāĻāĻžāϰāĻŋ -- Gulf stability-āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻāϰ |
Interim Government Reform | NBR, Bank Resolution, AQR | āύāϤā§āύ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰ⧠continuity āĻĒā§āϰāĻļā§āύ⧠|
IMF Conditionality | $ā§Ē.ā§B package, structural reform āĻāĻžāĻĒ | āĻļāϰā§āϤāϏāĻžāĻĒā§āĻā§āώ -- next tranche $800M āĻāĻāĻā§ |
Trade Deal (Trump tariff 35-37% āĻĨā§āĻā§ 20%) | RMG margin recovery | āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻāϰ āĻāϰ⧠US relation-āĻ |
Import Compression | Current account improvement | Forced -- āĻā§āĻāϏāĻ āύāϝāĻŧ |
āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻāĻ āĻŋāύ āϏāϤā§āϝ: āĻāĻ recovery-āϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āĻāĻžāϞāĻŋāĻāĻžāĻļāĻā§āϤāĻŋ Bangladesh-āĻāϰ āĻā§āϤāϰ āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻāϏā§āύāĻŋ -- āĻāϏā§āĻā§ diaspora āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻŦāĻšāĻŋāϰāĻžāĻāϤ āĻļāϰā§āϤ āĻĨā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻĻā§āĻļā§āϝāĻŧ āĻŦāĻŋāύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻ, āĻĻā§āĻļā§āϝāĻŧ āĻā§āĻĒāĻžāĻĻāύ, āĻĻā§āĻļā§āϝāĻŧ āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāĻžāϰ -- āĻāĻ āϤāĻŋāύāĻāĻŋāĻ āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻŦāϞāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻžāĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ recovery-āϰ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻāĻā§āϰ āϏā§āĻŽāĻžāĨ¤
āĻā§āύ pattern follow āĻāϰāĻāĻŋ -- Korea, Brazil, āύāĻž Argentina?
Pattern | āĻŽā§āϞ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋāώā§āĻā§āϝ | āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āϏāĻžāĻĨā§ āĻŽāĻŋāϞ |
South Korea (1997-2000) | āĻĻā§āϰā§āϤ āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāĻžāϰ, āĻāĻ ā§āϰ banking restructuring, ā§Š-ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰ⧠recovery | Reform āĻāϞāĻā§ -- āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāϤāĻŋ āĻāĻŽ |
Brazil (1980s Lost Decade) | Reform fatigue, populism, ā§§ā§Ļ+ āĻŦāĻāϰ āĻšāĻžāϰāĻžāύ⧠| Populism-āĻāϰ āĻā§āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻā§ |
Argentina (recurring) | Cyclical crisis, āĻāĻāύ⧠āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ recovery āĻšāϝāĻŧāύāĻŋ | Reform āύāĻž āĻāϰāϞ⧠āĻāĻ pattern āϏāĻŽā§āĻāĻŦ |
Sri Lanka (2022-) | IMF bailout-āĻ āĻāϞāĻā§, austerity painful | āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻŽāϤ⧠IMF-āĻ āĻāĻā§ -- āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠crisis āĻāĻŽ āĻāĻā§āϰ |
Turkey (2018-23) | Heterodox monetary -> orthodox U-turn | Turkey-āϰ āĻā§āϞ āĻāϰā§āύāĻŋ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ |
āĻŦāϰā§āϤāĻŽāĻžāύ data āĻŦāϞāĻā§ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ Korea-Brazil-āĻāϰ āĻŽāĻžāĻāĻāĻžāύ⧠āĻāĻā§āĨ¤ āĻĻā§āϰā§āϤ āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāĻžāϰ āĻāĻžāĻāϞ⧠Korea pattern āϏāĻŽā§āĻāĻŦāĨ¤ Populism-āĻ āĻā§āϞ⧠Brazil pattern āĻ āύāĻŋāĻŦāĻžāϰā§āϝāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻžāĻŽā§ ā§¨-ā§Š āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āϏāĻŋāĻĻā§āϧāĻžāύā§āϤ āύāĻŋāϰā§āϧāĻžāϰāĻŖ āĻāϰāĻŦā§ āĻā§āύ pattern-āĻ āϝāĻžāĻŦāĨ¤
Recovery-āϰ āϏā§āĻŽāĻž -- āϝāĻž āĻāĻāύ⧠āĻĢā§āϰā§āύāĻŋ
- NPL ratio ā§Šā§Ģ.ā§% āĻĨā§āĻā§ ā§§ā§Ļ%-āĻ namāϤ⧠ā§Ģ-ā§§ā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰ āϞāĻžāĻāĻŦā§ -- āĻĻā§āϰā§āϤ āϏāĻŽāĻžāϧāĻžāύ āĻ āϏāĻŽā§āĻāĻŦ
- Banking sector capital ratio (ā§Ē.ā§Ģ%) regulatory minimum (ā§§ā§Ļ%)-āĻ āĻĢāĻŋāϰāϤ⧠BDT ā§§,ā§Ļā§Ļ,ā§Ļā§Ļā§Ļ+ āĻā§āĻāĻŋ capital injection āĻĻāϰāĻāĻžāϰ
- Real wage āĻāĻāύ⧠negative growth -- āĻā§āϰāϝāĻŧāĻā§āώāĻŽāϤāĻž āĻĢāĻŋāϰāϤ⧠āϏāĻŽāϝāĻŧ āϞāĻžāĻāĻŦā§
- Poverty rate ā§¨ā§Ž% (PPRC) -- ā§§ā§Ž%-āĻ āĻĢāĻŋāϰāϤ⧠āĻ āϰā§āĻĨāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āĻŦā§āĻŽ āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻž āĻ āϏāĻŽā§āĻāĻŦ
- Tax-GDP ā§Ŧ.ā§Ž% āĻĨā§āĻā§ ā§§ā§Ģ%-āĻ uplift -- āĻĻāĻļāĻā§āϰ āĻāĻžāĻ
- Export diversification -- structural -- āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āĻĒāϰ āĻŦāĻāϰ āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻĒā§āϰāϝāĻŧā§āĻāύ
- FDI ā§Ļ.ā§Ģ%-āĻ -- ā§§.ā§%-āĻ (⧍ā§Ļā§§ā§Š peak) āĻĢāĻŋāϰāϤ⧠āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤāĻŋāĻļā§āϞāϤāĻž āĻ āĻāϏā§āĻĨāĻž āĻĒā§āύāϰā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻžāϰ āĻĻāϰāĻāĻžāϰ
"In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could." -- Rudi Dornbusch
Dornbusch-āĻāϰ āĻāĻ āĻāĻā§āϤāĻŋ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻāύā§āϝ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϏāĻā§āĻāĻŋāĻāĨ¤ ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰ āϧāϰ⧠structural āϏāĻŽāϏā§āϝāĻž āĻāĻŽā§āĻā§ -- āĻā§āĻ āĻāĻžāĻŦā§āύāĻŋ āĻŦāĻŋāϏā§āĻĢā§āϰāĻŖ āĻšāĻŦā§āĨ¤ āϤāĻžāϰāĻĒāϰ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍⧍-⧍ā§Ē-āĻ āĻāĻāϏāĻžāĻĨā§ āϏāĻŦ āĻāĻžāĻāϞāĨ¤ āĻāĻāύ recovery-āĻ āĻāĻāĻ pattern follow āĻāϰāϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϰ⧠-- āϧā§āϰ⧠āϧā§āϰ⧠āĻāĻŋāĻā§āĻ āĻšāĻā§āĻā§ āύāĻž āĻŽāύ⧠āĻšāĻŦā§, āϤāĻžāϰāĻĒāϰ āĻšāĻ āĻžā§ āϏāĻŦ āĻ āĻŋāĻ āĻšāϤ⧠āĻļā§āϰ⧠āĻāϰāĻŦā§āĨ¤ āĻ āĻĨāĻŦāĻž āĻāϞā§āĻā§ -- āĻŽāύ⧠āĻšāĻŦā§ recovery āĻšāĻā§āĻā§, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻāĻāĻĻāĻŋāύ āϏāĻŦ āĻā§āĻā§ āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧāĻŦā§āĨ¤ āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻāϰ āĻāϰāĻā§ āĻāĻāĻžāĻŽā§ ā§¨-ā§Š āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āϏāĻŋāĻĻā§āϧāĻžāύā§āϤā§āĨ¤
āϏāĻžāĻŽāύ⧠āĻā§ -- ā§ŠāĻāĻŋ āĻā§āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻ Genuine Boom-āĻāϰ āĻļāϰā§āϤ
āĻā§āĻāĻāĻŋ ā§§: āĻŽāϧā§āϝāĻĒā§āϰāĻžāĻā§āϝā§āϰ āϏāĻāĻāĻžāϤ
World Bank āϏāϤāϰā§āĻ āĻāϰā§āĻā§ -- Strait of Hormuz-āĻ āĻāϤā§āϤā§āĻāύāĻžāϝāĻŧ āϤā§āϞ āĻ LNG āĻĻāĻžāĻŽ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻā§āĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ āĻāύā§āϝ āϤāĻŋāύāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻāϏāĻžāĻĨā§ āĻāĻāĻžāϤ: (ā§§) energy import bill āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻŦā§āĻĄāĻŧā§ āϝāĻžāĻŦā§, (⧍) energy subsidy āĻāϰāĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻŦā§, (ā§Š) Gulf-āĻ āĻ āϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϰāϤāĻž āĻĻā§āϰā§āĻ āĻšāϞ⧠remittance-āĻāϰ ā§Ēā§Š% āϝā§āĻāĻž Gulf āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻāϏ⧠-- āϏā§āĻāĻž āĻā§āĻāĻāĻŋāϤ⧠āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧāĻŦā§āĨ¤
āĻā§āĻāĻāĻŋ ⧍: LDC Graduation (āύāĻā§āĻŽā§āĻŦāϰ ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ŧ)
āĻŽāĻžāϤā§āϰ ā§Ŧ āĻŽāĻžāϏ āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻŋāĨ¤ CPD-āϰ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āϞā§āώāĻŖ āĻ āύā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧā§, LDC graduation-āĻ āĻŦā§āĻļā§āĻŦāĻŋāĻ āϰāĻĒā§āϤāĻžāύāĻŋāϰ ~ā§ā§Ļ% āϝ⧠duty-free preference āĻāϤāĻĻāĻŋāύ āĻĒāĻžāĻāϝāĻŧāĻž āϝā§āϤ, āϤāĻž āϧā§āϰ⧠āϧā§āϰ⧠āĻāĻ ā§ āϝāĻžāĻŦā§āĨ¤ RMG-āϤ⧠EU GSP+ status, Canada duty-free access -- āϏāĻŦ āĻā§āώā§āϤā§āϰ⧠āύāϤā§āύ āĻāϞā§āĻāύāĻž āĻĻāϰāĻāĻžāϰāĨ¤ Export diversification āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻž āĻāĻ āϧāĻžāĻā§āĻāĻž āϏāĻžāĻŽāϞāĻžāύ⧠āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻ āϏāĻŽā§āĻāĻŦāĨ¤
āĻā§āĻāĻāĻŋ ā§Š: āύāϤā§āύ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰā§āϰ Populism
BNP āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻŦāĻžāĻāύ⧠āĻāϝāĻŧā§ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĻļā§āϰā§āϤāĻŋ āĻĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ Family Card, inflation-indexed wages, āĻŦāĻĄāĻŧ āϏāĻžāĻŽāĻžāĻāĻŋāĻ āĻŦā§āϝāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āĻāύāĻĒā§āϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠fiscal space āύā§āĻāĨ¤ IMF-āĻāϰ āĻĒāϰāĻŦāϰā§āϤ⧠tranche $ā§Žā§Ļā§Ļ āĻŽāĻŋāϞāĻŋāϝāĻŧāύ āĻāĻāĻā§ āϰāĻžāĻāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ -- āύāϤā§āύ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰā§āϰ policy āĻĻā§āĻā§ āϏāĻŋāĻĻā§āϧāĻžāύā§āϤ āĻšāĻŦā§āĨ¤ āϝāĻĻāĻŋ populism-āĻ āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ banking reform, exchange rate flexibility, fiscal discipline āĻāĻžāĻā§ -- āĻļā§āϰ⧠āĻĨā§āĻā§ āϏāĻŦāĻāĻŋāĻā§ āĻĒā§āύāϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻāĻžāĻāϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϰā§āĨ¤ āĻŦā§āϰāĻžāĻāĻŋāϞ ā§§ā§¯ā§Žā§Ļ-āϰ Lost Decade-āĻ āĻāĻāĻžāĻ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĨ¤
Genuine Boom-āĻ āĻĒā§āĻāĻāĻžāϤ⧠āĻā§ āĻĻāϰāĻāĻžāϰ?
āĻļāϰā§āϤ | āĻā§ āĻĻāϰāĻāĻžāϰ | āĻāĻāύāĻāĻžāϰ āĻ āĻŦāϏā§āĻĨāĻž |
Banking Reform | NPL recovery, undercapitalized āĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻ āĻ āĻŋāĻ, S Alam-āĻāϰ āĻŽāϤ⧠āĻāĻŖ recover | Bank Resolution Ordinance ⧍ā§Ļ⧍ā§Ģ āĻĒāĻžāϏ; āĻĒā§āϰāϝāĻŧā§āĻ āĻāϞāĻā§; āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŖāϤāĻŋ āĻ āύāĻŋāĻļā§āĻāĻŋāϤ |
Fiscal Discipline | Tax-GDP ā§§ā§Ģ%-āĻ, capacity payment renegotiation, subsidy reform | Q1 FY26 revenue +20%, āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻžāĻ āĻžāĻŽā§āĻāϤ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāϰā§āϤāύ slow |
Export Diversification | RMG-āϰ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϰ⧠IT, āĻāώā§āϧ, āĻāĻžāĻŽāĻĄāĻŧāĻž, āĻā§āώāĻŋ āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāĻāĻžāϤāĻāϰāĻŖ | Plan āĻāĻā§, āĻŦāĻžāϏā§āϤāĻŦāĻžāϝāĻŧāύ āĻ āĻĒā§āϰāϤā§āϞ; LDC graduation deadline āĻāĻžāĻĒ |
āϰāĻžāĻāύā§āϤāĻŋāĻ āϏā§āĻĨāĻŋāϤāĻŋāĻļā§āϞāϤāĻž | Continuity āĻ policy predictability | āύāϤā§āύ āϏāϰāĻāĻžāϰ āĻāϏā§āĻā§; populism-āĻāϰ āĻā§āĻāĻāĻŋ |
Institutional Reform | Bangladesh Bank independence, judiciary, anti-corruption | Interim govt-āĻāϰ āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāĻžāϰ āĻāĻžāϞ⧠āĻĨāĻžāĻāĻŦā§ āĻāĻŋāύāĻž āĻĒā§āϰāĻļā§āύāĻŦāĻŋāĻĻā§āϧ |
Energy Sector Reform | Capacity payment āĻā§āĻā§āϤāĻŋ renegotiate, renewable transition | āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ āĻāĻŋāĻā§āĻ āĻšāϝāĻŧāύāĻŋ; bjāώā§āĻāĻžāϰ āĻāĻžāĻĒ |
āĻāĻ āĻāϝāĻŧāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻāϏāĻžāĻĨā§ āύāĻž āĻšāϞā§, āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ stabilization-āĻāĻ āĻĨā§āĻŽā§ āĻĨāĻžāĻāĻŦā§āĨ¤ Genuine boom āĻšāĻŦā§ āύāĻžāĨ¤ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻāĻžāϰāĻžāĻĒ āĻā§āώā§āϤā§āϰ⧠-- āĻŦā§āϰāĻžāĻāĻŋāϞā§āϰ Lost Decade-āĻāϰ āĻĒāĻĨā§ āϝā§āϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϰā§āĨ¤ āϏāĻŦāĻā§āϝāĻŧā§ āĻāĻžāϞ⧠āĻā§āώā§āϤā§āϰ⧠-- āĻĻāĻā§āώāĻŋāĻŖ āĻā§āϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāϰ āĻŽāĻ¤ā§ ā§Š-ā§Ģ āĻŦāĻāϰ⧠āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ āĻĒā§āύāϰā§āĻĻā§āϧāĻžāϰāĨ¤
āĻāĻĒāϏāĻāĻšāĻžāϰ -- āĻļāĻŋāĻāĻĄāĻŧ āύāĻž āĻŦāĻĻāϞāĻžāϞ⧠āĻāĻžāĻāĻ āĻŦāĻĻāϞāĻžāĻŦā§ āύāĻž
āĻļā§āϰā§āϤ⧠āĻāĻžāĻā§āϰ āĻāϞā§āĻĒ āĻĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āĻļā§āϰ⧠āĻāϰā§āĻāĻŋāϞāĻžāĻŽāĨ¤ āĻļā§āώ⧠āϏā§āĻ āĻāϞā§āĻĒā§āĻ āĻĢāĻŋāϰāĻŋāĨ¤
āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻžāĻ āϝāĻĻāĻŋ āĻļāĻŋāĻāĻĄāĻŧā§ āĻĒāĻāύ āύāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§ āĻĻāĻžāĻāĻĄāĻŧāĻžāύ⧠āĻĨāĻžāĻā§, āĻāĻĄāĻŧ āĻāϏāĻž āĻĒāϰā§āϝāύā§āϤ āϏā§āĻāĻž āĻŦā§āĻāϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϰ⧠āύāĻžāĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ boom phase āĻāĻŋāϞ āĻ āĻŋāĻ āĻāĻŽāύ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻžāĻ -- āĻŦāĻžāĻāϰ⧠āϏāĻŦā§āĻ, āĻā§āϤāĻ°ā§ ā§§ā§ŽāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻžāĻ āĻžāĻŽā§āĻāϤ āĻĒāĻāύāĨ¤ āĻāĻžāϰāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻĄāĻŧ (COVID, Russia-Ukraine, July uprising, Trump tariff) āϏā§āĻ āĻĒāĻāύāĻā§āϞā§āĻā§ āĻĻā§āĻļā§āϝāĻŽāĻžāύ āĻāϰā§āĻā§āĨ¤
āĻāĻāύ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ trough-āĻ āĻāĻā§āĨ¤ Stabilize āĻšāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§āĨ¤ Tentative recovery āĻļā§āϰā§āĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāύā§āϤ⧠genuine boom-āĻ āĻĒā§āĻāĻāĻžāϤ⧠āĻšāϞ⧠āĻļāĻŋāĻāĻĄāĻŧ āĻŦāĻĻāϞāĻžāϤ⧠āĻšāĻŦā§ -- āĻļā§āϧ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϤāĻž āύāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ Banking reform, fiscal discipline, export diversification, institutional independence, energy sector reform -- āĻāĻ āĻĒāĻžāĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻžāĻ āĻžāĻŽā§āĻāϤ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāϰā§āϤāύ āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻž āĻĒāϰāĻŦāϰā§āϤ⧠boom āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļāĻā§ āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻāĻāĻ trap-āĻ āĻĢā§āϞāĻŦā§āĨ¤ ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āĻĒāϰāĻŦāϰā§āϤ⧠14 āĻŦāĻāϰ āĻšāĻžāϰāĻžāĻŦā§āĨ¤
āĻāϤāĻŋāĻšāĻžāϏ āĻŦāϞ⧠āĻĻā§āĻāĻŋ āĻĒāĻĨ āĻāĻā§ -- āĻĻāĻā§āώāĻŋāĻŖ āĻā§āϰāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāϰ āĻĻā§āϰā§āϤ āϏāĻāϏā§āĻāĻžāϰ (ā§Š-ā§Ģ āĻŦāĻāϰ⧠recovery) āĻ āĻĨāĻŦāĻž āĻŦā§āϰāĻžāĻāĻŋāϞā§āϰ Lost Decade (populism-āĻ ā§§ā§Ļ+ āĻŦāĻāϰ āĻšāĻžāϰāĻžāύā§)āĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļ āĻā§āύ āĻĒāĻĨā§ āϝāĻžāĻŦā§ -- āϏā§āĻāĻž āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻāϰ āĻāϰāĻā§ āĻāĻāĻžāĻŽā§ ā§¨-ā§Š āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ āύā§āϤāĻŋāĻāϤ āϏāĻŋāĻĻā§āϧāĻžāύā§āϤā§āĨ¤
"Stability is destabilising. The longer the boom, the more fragile the system that emerges from it." -- Hyman Minsky
Minsky ā§Ģā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰ āĻāĻā§ āĻŦāϞā§āĻāĻŋāϞā§āύ āĻāĻ āĻāĻĨāĻžāĨ¤ āĻŦāĻžāĻāϞāĻžāĻĻā§āĻļā§āϰ ā§§ā§Ē āĻŦāĻāϰā§āϰ boom-bust cycle āϤāĻžāϰ āϤāϤā§āϤā§āĻŦā§āϰ āĻā§āĻŦāύā§āϤ āĻĒā§āϰāĻŽāĻžāĻŖāĨ¤ āĻāĻāύ āĻĒā§āϰāĻļā§āύ -- āĻĒāϰāĻŦāϰā§āϤ⧠ā§Ģā§Ļ āĻŦāĻāϰ āĻāĻŽāϰāĻž āĻā§āύ āĻĒāĻžāĻ āĻŽāύ⧠āϰāĻžāĻāĻŦ? āĻļāĻŋāĻāĻĄāĻŧ āĻ āĻŋāĻ āύāĻž āĻāϰ⧠āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻĒāĻžāϤāĻž āĻāĻāĻžāύ⧠-- āύāĻžāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰ āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āϤ āĻĒā§āύāϰā§āύāĻŋāϰā§āĻŽāĻžāĻŖ?










